Progreso Lakes, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

501
FXUS64 KBRO 042152 AAA
AFDBRO
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
452 PM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025
...New UPDATE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 421 PM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025
- High risk of rip currents along the Lower Texas beaches through
   Sunday morning.
- Coastal Flood Statement along Lower Texas beaches will go into
   effect tonight at midnight through Sunday evening. (See
   update)
- Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected
   each day, increasing in coverage mid to late next week.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 421 PM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025
The risk of rip currents through Sunday morning has been increased to
High due to wave action seen on Lower Texas Beach webcams, along
with observed long-period swell and moderate seas offshore. Higher
than predicted observed water levels at SPI Brazos Santiago, as
well as increasing forecast water levels with winds shifting
onshore (and the approaching full moon on Monday), warrants
issuance of a Coastal Flood Statement for all Lower Texas Beaches
from midnight to 6 PM Sunday. Observed water levels will continue
to be monitored as high tide approaches (Sunday 2:56 AM, 2:06 PM)
to judge whether this should be upgraded to a Coastal Flood
Advisory. 69 HEK
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025
Daily low (20% or less) precipitation chances will continue
through early next week, mainly along and east of I-69E, as a weak
mid level low gradually translates from the north central Gulf
toward the southwestern Gulf. This mornings 12Z sounding measured
a precipitable water value of 1.67 inches, which is just above
the 50th percentile according to SPCs sounding climatology.
Meager moisture content should limit the threat for heavy
rainfall, although brief, heavy rainfall cannot be ruled out with
any showers or thunderstorms that develop. Deterministic and
ensemble guidance indicate more favorable moisture content will
arrive by Tuesday or Wednesday, with precipitable water values
expected to range near or above the 75th percentile. In
combination with diurnal instability and the sea breeze, low to
medium (30-60%) rain chances are expected each day region wide.
The highest rain chances will reside closer to the immediate
coast, coinciding with the highest moisture content. Otherwise,
expect near to slightly above normal temperatures throughout the
week, with a minor (level 1 of 4) to moderate (level 2 of 4) heat
risk.
SEE UPDATE ISSUED 421 PM. For the Lower Texas beaches, there is a
moderate risk of rip currents through at least Sunday evening.
Use caution if youre planning to swim in the water. In addition,
well have to keep an eye on the potential for minor coastal
flooding, mainly during high tide, due to increasing swell/period
and proximity to the full moon and higher astronomical tides.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025
VFR will prevail through the forecast period at all TAF sites.
Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms may develop, but
confidence is too low to warrant a mention with this TAF issuance.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025
A weak mid level low pressure over the north central Gulf is
expected to gradually move into the southwestern Gulf. Expect
light to moderate winds and low to moderate seas throughout the
forecast period, with seas of 3-5 feet over the Gulf waters
through the weekend and 2-4 feet next week. Daily low to medium
(20-60%) rain chances through mid week next week. Locally enhanced
winds and seas are likely within any showers or thunderstorms.
Waterspouts may also be possible.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             73  92  75  93 /   0  10   0  10
HARLINGEN               70  93  71  94 /   0  10   0  10
MCALLEN                 72  96  74  99 /   0   0   0  10
RIO GRANDE CITY         69  96  71  99 /   0   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      78  86  79  88 /  10  10  10  10
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     72  89  74  91 /  10  10   0  10
&&
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday morning for TXZ451-454-455.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...22-Garcia
LONG TERM....22-Garcia
AVIATION...22-Garcia

NWS BRO Office Area Forecast Discussion