Progreso, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

124
FXUS64 KBRO 100550
AFDBRO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
Issued by National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1250 AM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025
...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE...
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1250 AM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025
Daily low to medium (30-50%) rain chances will continue across
most of Deep South Texas through the end of the week, through the
weekend into next week. An unseasonably moist airmass In
combination with diurnal instability and a lingering stationary
boundary, isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are
expected to develop from the mid morning hours to early evening
hours each day across the region. Over the Gulf waters and near
the Lower Texas beaches, isolated activity is expected into the
evening and overnight hours. In general, the highest precipitation
chances each day will reside closer to the immediate coast, which
coincides with the highest precipitable water values. Given the
presence of high moisture content, pockets of brief heavy rainfall
cannot be ruled out with any showers or thunderstorms that
develop. This may result in nuisance flooding issues, mainly over
low-lying or flood-prone areas depending on where the activity
sets up. Rain chances look to decrease over the weekend as
subsidence increases aloft. Any activity should be limited to
mostly sea breeze activity during the early afternoon to early
evening hours.
Expect seasonable temperatures to continue through the next week
or so with highs in the low to mid 90s region wide, except upper
80s near the coast. In combination with the humidity, heat index
values are expected to range from 100 to 105 degrees. Fortunately,
increased cloud cover associated with any showers or
thunderstorms may help keep temperatures a few degrees cooler than
forecast. A minor (level 1 of 4) heat risk will continue through
the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1250 AM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025
Some light coastal showers may develop over the next 24 hours,
particularly at BRO where some TSRA is possible, primarily between
14Z and 22Z Wednesday. MVFR ceilings are possible, primarily within
thunderstorms, but could materialize shortly before or after
sunrise. Winds may be gusty at times after 17Z Wednesday where
occasional gusts from collapsing seabreeze showers and storms is
possible.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1250 AM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025
Generally favorable marine conditions will prevail with light to
moderate easterly winds and low to moderate seas. Medium to high
rain chances continue through the end of the week over the Gulf
waters and Laguna Madre. Locally enhanced winds and seas are
likely within any showers and thunderstorms.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             92  78  92  77 /  50  40  60  40
HARLINGEN               92  74  93  74 /  50  30  60  40
MCALLEN                 95  77  95  77 /  50  30  60  40
RIO GRANDE CITY         96  74  95  74 /  50  20  50  30
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      87  81  88  81 /  60  40  60  60
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     90  77  90  77 /  50  40  60  50
&&
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...99

NWS BRO Office Area Forecast Discussion