Prospect Harbor, Maine Weather Forecast Discussion

965
FXUS61 KCAR 011821
AFDCAR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
221 PM EDT Wed Oct 1 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will crest over the Gulf of Maine on Thursday.
High pressure will remain ridged south of the waters Friday
through the weekend and into Monday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Any diurnally driven showers and cloud cover will dissipate as
the sun goes down this afternoon. Winds will remain gusty till a
couple hours past sunset. 1033mb surface high pressure will
drift south out of Quebec tonight and cross over western Maine
tonight. Winds will relax and go calm across much of the area
but cannot rule out some mixing to continue along the Downeast
coast. Opted to stay close to NBM for the shoreline keeping the
mixing going which will limit frost formation tonight. Much of
the CWA will see decoupling under clear skies and calm winds.
Expecting areas to widespread frost to develop over Interior
Downeast to Northern Maine. The Frost/Freeze program remains
active for the Bangor region east to Calais and south to the
shore. Frost Advisories have been expanded to cover Southern
Penobscot, Northern Hancock and Central Washington counties.
Opted to not expand to the shoreline due to mixing but cannot
rule out frost as far south as Route 1 especially in places like
Machias. Will let the evening shift reanalyze the potential for
possible extension of the frost advisory. Temperatures bottom
out in the mid to upper 20s north with warmer spots on the
higher hills bottoming out around 30-33F. Low to mid 30s for the
Central Highlands, Bangor region to Interior Downeast. Upper 30s
to near 40F but locations like Machias will bottom out in the
mid 30s. Low 40s on the islands by daybreak.
Tomorrow high pressure drifts over Cape Cod and the Gulf of
Maine waters. Winds will be light and variable tomorrow. It will
be a sunny day but temperatures struggle to reach 60F across the
north, low 60s for the Central Highlands to Downeast coast.
Afternoon RHs will plummet due to dry mixed atmosphere and be in
the 30 to 40 percent range posing fire weather concerns in the
ongoing drought. See the fire weather section below. Tomorrow
night weak return flow develops with light SW winds.
Temperatures not as cool in the mid 30s to low 40s and partly
cloudy skies.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A ridge of high pressure continues to slide eastward, pulling
away from the forecast area on Friday and allowing for return
flow over the forecast area. This synoptic pattern will lead to
clear skies and above normal temperatures lifting into the upper
60s to lower 70s throughout the region. Overnight Friday night,
clear skies should remain Downeast, with efficient radiational
cooling leading to lows falling into the mid 40s. Across the
north, the approach of a weak cold front will lead to an
increase in cloud cover, which will limit how well the boundary
layer may decouple and result in more mild low temperatures in
the upper 40s. That said, if this front trends even slower or
begins to stall north of the state, skies could remain clear
enough for temperatures to make a run for the lower 40s if not
below 40 across the north.
The upper level trough associated with the approaching surface
front on Saturday will continue to become less amplified into
the weekend, and the front will lose its support through this
time. Increased cloud cover is expected across the north, with
high temperatures greatly dependent on the extent of this cloud
cover. If the front stalls further north or is weaker or more
moisture starved as it moves in, cloud cover could be much less
and incoming solar radiation may lift temperatures into the mid
70s. On the flip side, if the front moves slightly further south
before stalling and has enough moisture support, overcast
stratocu could dominate the weather for the north and result in
high temperatures stuck in the mid 60s. For the Downeast region,
the front will likely stall too far north to have any
significant impact, and high temperatures are more likely to
lift into the mid 70s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure will continue to dominate the weather pattern
through the rest of the weekend and through the day on Monday as
well. Warm air advection returns through this time, allowing for
temperatures that were already slightly above average to soar
into the mid to upper 70s on Sunday and lift further to near
daily record high temperatures on Monday.
Another front will approach and could stall across the forecast
area Tuesday. There is fairly good consistency across model
guidance for an open wave low pressure system to push through
New England late Tuesday into Wednesday, which could bring the
next soaking rain to the entire forecast area, especially if the
open wave phases with previous stalling front.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR cigs this afternoon. VCSH at northern terms. N
winds 10-15kt gusting up to 25kt. Tonight, SKC with all northern
terms going light and variable winds. BGR and BHB expect N
winds 5-15kt continuing and a few gusts. Cannot rule out BCFG at
all terms tonight but heavily dependent on winds becoming VRB or
calm. Tomorrow, VFR with light and variable winds.
SHORT TERM:
Fri - Fri night...VFR. Slight chance of showers late north. SW
winds 10 - 15 kts with gusts up to around 20 kts Fri, becoming
light and variable overnight.
Sat - Sun night: Occasional MVFR north in low cigs and isolated
showers. Otherwise, VFR. Winds light and variable.
Mon: VFR across all terminals. SW winds 5 to 10 kts.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Small Craft Advisory remains in effect through 8AM
Thursday. High Surf Advisory for the Downeast coast remains in
effect through 8AM Thursday. Long period swells from the distant
remnants of Humberto and Hurricane Imelda will continue to
impact the waters. Seas reaching 5-8ft tonight with 12-14 second
periods. N winds gusting up to 25kt this evening relax tonight.
Winds relax overnight and winds will be below SCA Thursday into
Thursday night. Seas will subside to 3-5ft tomorrow then 2-3ft
tomorrow night. Sea surface water temperatures are in the 55-57F
range from the Downeast coast out 25nm and east to the Hague
Line including Penobscot and Passamaquoddy Bays.
SHORT TERM: Winds and seas should remain below small craft
advisory levels through the end of the week and into the
weekend.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Afternoon minimum RHs for Thursday and Friday away from the
coastline is expected to drop to the 30-40 percent range. Good
RH recovery expected during the overnight hours. Breezy winds
today will become lighter for Thursday into Friday. Frost is
expected tonight in portions of the Interior Downeast and Bangor
region continuing to kill off finer fuels. Much warmer
temperatures in the 70s expected Saturday through early next
week but dry. Winds each day expected to generally be less than
15mph. Wetting rain is very unlikely until perhaps Tuesday night
into Wednesday night next week but confidence is low.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 8 AM EDT Thursday for MEZ015>017.
     High Surf Advisory until 8 AM EDT Thursday for MEZ029-030.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
Near Term...Sinko
Short Term...AStrauser
Long Term...AStrauser
Aviation...Sinko/AStrauser
Marine...Sinko/AStrauser
Fire Weather...Sinko

NWS CAR Office Area Forecast Discussion