Providence, Louisiana Weather Forecast Discussion

410
FXUS64 KLIX 220449
AFDLIX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1149 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 1148 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
A broad but weak upper level sliding through the Central Plains
Sunday will be coming across the Mississippi Valley today. While
this will provide a little lift for convective development, PW
across the area will be rising during the day from west to east...
possibly approaches 2 inches west of I-55. No significant concerns
but could see coverage approaching 50% around Baton Rouge Metro.
CAMs and global models not too terrible different in terms of qpf
coverage solutions.
MEFFER
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Sunday night)
Issued at 1148 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
Latest global model runs are overall are similar to previous
solutions for latter half of this week, suggesting a local pattern
change. They show a piece of an upper trough dropping down southeast
across the Rockies mid week, closing off and deepening as it tracks
into and through the southern US. That bring a decent chance for
rain and quite noticeable drop in temps end of the week into next
weekend.
MEFFER
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1148 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
VFR conditions in place this evening should hold until midday Sunday
when CU field develops. Weak shortwave brings return of scattered
showers/storms on Sunday. Will say its borderline whether PROB30 can
be justified but have them in TAFs regardless. Even with scattered
convection, likely still going to be
MEFFER
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1148 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
Surface ridge will remain generally east to northeast of the coastal
waters throughout the forecast period. This will yield light
onshore winds around 10 knots +/-5kts and seas around 2 feet.
Increased rain chances the next couple days means higher potential
for temporary wind direction changes, increases and a bump in seas.
Otherwise, minimal marine hazards expected.
MEFFER
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  68  90  69  91 /   0  20  10  20
BTR  70  91  71  92 /  20  40  10  30
ASD  69  89  69  90 /   0  20   0  10
MSY  75  91  75  93 /  10  20   0  20
GPT  72  87  73  88 /   0  10   0  10
PQL  69  89  69  90 /   0  10   0   0
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ME
LONG TERM....ME
AVIATION...ME
MARINE...ME

NWS LIX Office Area Forecast Discussion