268 FXUS63 KGRR 270742 AFDGRRArea Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 342 AM EDT Sat Sep 27 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Fog through the north again this morning
- Warm and Dry conditions ahead
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.DISCUSSION... Issued at 330 AM EDT Sat Sep 27 2025
- Fog again this morning
Clearing skies along and adjacent to the US 10 corridor have allowed patchy fog and shallow low clouds to form over much of northern lower Michigan. Model soundings at Mt Pleasant show dry air aloft, along with stronger winds, and an inversion with light winds at the surface. Couple this with low level moisture and you have a good recipe for fog. However, while winds remain fairly calm through out the lower peninsula, there remains slightly drier air south of the above mentioned demarcation. While shallow fog is still possible, it will be limited to only the low lying regions Any fog will continue until shortly after sunrise before lifting and dissipating.
- Warm and Dry conditions ahead
Models remain consistent on the forecast ahead. A shallow weak front will move through southern Canada sweeping a dry boundary through the region tonight. Warm dry air will follow as high pressure moves over the central United States and will dominate the pattern through the upcoming week. Expect Max Temps to be 10 to 15 degrees above normal with readings in the 80s through the first half of the week. The ridge will shift eastward mid week with a perturbation riding over the top of the ridge which could bring a temps slightly closer to normal. Precipitation not expected this week.
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.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 210 AM EDT Sat Sep 27 2025
VFR conditions continue with a few non TAF sites dropping down to VLIFR. This is indication of the potential for another round of patchy dense fog. Winds are calm across most areas. The surface is slightly drier with dew point depressions in the 1 to 2 Degree range. This differs from last night when dewpoint depressions were zero. While there does remain the potential for fog, it is mostly north of the I 96 corridor. The only TAF site of concern is MKG. So have included some IFR vsbys early this morning. Any fog/mist and reducing conditions will improve shortly after sunrise. Winds will mix out with southwest winds this afternoon, though they should be around 10 kts or lower.
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.MARINE... Issued at 330 AM EDT Sat Sep 27 2025
Conditions are expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory/Beach Hazards Statement levels the next several days as a weak gradient is in place across the area. North winds today will flip to southwesterly Saturday. Winds will peak each afternoon at around 10- 15 knots as some lake breeze enhancement occurs along the shoreline. There is also a signal for a wind enhancement early Sunday morning of around 10-15 knots near Big and Little Sable points as a wind maxima moves south across the lake. Expect dry conditions across the waters.
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.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...None.
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DISCUSSION...Ceru AVIATION...Ceru MARINE...Thomas
NWS GRR Office Area Forecast Discussion