Punta Gorda, Florida Weather Forecast Discussion

128
FXUS62 KTBW 011832
AFDTBW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
232 PM EDT Wed Oct 1 2025
...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 229 PM EDT Wed Oct 1 2025
Hurricane Imelda, located between the eastern seaboard and Bermuda
continues moving eastward toward Bermuda over the next 24 hours, and
then further east into the north central Atlantic. Remnants of
Humberto has completed extra-tropical transition as it moves further
to the northeast. No direct impacts from either of these storms is
expected for west central and southwest Florida. Drier air on the
west side of Hurricane Imelda and high pressure building in from the
north remains over west central and southwest Florida  and will
produce pleasant weather with lower rain chances today. Breezy
northeast winds expected starting on Thursday with the interaction
between Imelda, strong high pressure along the eastern seaboard and
a trough of low pressure over the Bay of Campeche. These breezy
conditions continue into the weekend. Moisture also increases by
Thursday with higher rain chances expected for the latter part of
the week and into the weekend. Near seasonal temperatures expected
through the period, with mid to upper 80`s to low 90`s expected each
afternoon. Overnight lows will remain in the upper 60`s to mid
70`s.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 229 PM EDT Wed Oct 1 2025
VFR conditions and light winds around 5-10 knots will prevail for
the first half of the period. Some gusty northeast winds around 10
knots with higher gusts near 20 knots will be possible after 14Z on
Thursday morning. Rain chances remain low today, but can`t
completely rule out a stray shower later this evening, so will
cover this with VCSH from 00-03Z.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 229 PM EDT Wed Oct 1 2025
Hurricane Imelda remains well to the east of Florida and is moving
eastward away from Florida toward Bermuda. Strong surface high
pressure will build into the eastern gulf from the north, creating a
tight pressure gradient across the eastern gulf waters. This will
result in east-northeast winds increasing to Small Craft Exercise
Caution late tonight, then further increasing to Small Craft
Advisory levels on Thursday morning and continuing through the
weekend. A Small Craft Advisory has been issued to cover those
times. Otherwise, scattered to numerous showers and storms will
develop each day, creating locally gusty winds and rough seas.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 229 PM EDT Wed Oct 1 2025
Abundant moisture will keep humidity values above critical levels
through the period. Scattered showers and isolated storms possible
each day through the period. Gusty northeast winds will produce some
high dispersions for the next few days.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  75  88  74  88 /  20  50  10  50
FMY  74  88  73  87 /  40  80  30  60
GIF  73  86  73  87 /  20  50  10  50
SRQ  73  88  72  88 /  40  60  20  50
BKV  70  86  69  86 /  20  40   0  50
SPG  75  86  74  86 /  30  50  10  50
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Thursday to 8 AM EDT Sunday for
     Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20
     NM-Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL
     out 20 NM-Tampa Bay waters-Waters from Englewood to Tarpon
     Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Tarpon Springs to
     Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM.
Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM Thursday to 8 AM EDT Sunday for
     Charlotte Harbor and Pine Island Sound-Coastal waters from
     Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-Waters from Bonita
     Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Wynn
DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR...Pearce

NWS TBW Office Area Forecast Discussion