Radisson, New York Weather Forecast Discussion

301
FXUS61 KBGM 181802
AFDBGM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
202 PM EDT Thu Sep 18 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A dry cold front will move through the region tonight and Friday
resulting in cooler weather through the start of the weekend.
Temperatures then trend warmer through the first half of next week.
Periods of rain showers are also possible early next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A cold front will drop south into the region tonight and continue to
move through on Friday. While moisture is limited, there are a
couple of solutions from short range guidance that have spotty
showers over North-Central NY. In addition, there could be localized
orographic effects so slight chance PoPs were added for the
overnight hours. Conditions look too dry Friday for any showers that
can develop to drift further south. Winds pick up behind the front,
though peak gusts are not expected to exceed 20 mph.
Temperatures will remain fairly mild tonight as lows will be in the
50s. Cooler air then fills in behind the front under northwest flow
as temperatures climb into the upper 60s to mid 70s. Some valley
locations in NEPA will be around 80. Good radiational cooling is
then expected Friday night as skies will be clear and winds will be
calm. Temperatures were adjusted using a blend of NBM and the NBM
10th percentile which resulted in lows in the mid 30s to mid 40s.
Some of the colder hilltops could see patchy frost as well.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A broad trough will slide east as a ridge moves in on Saturday. Flow
will still be northwesterly, so seasonable conditions are expected
for the start of the weekend. Highs will once again be in the 60s
and 70s. With the cooler air retreating northward, Saturday night
will be slightly warmer than the night before as temperatures will
generally be in the 40s and low 50s, though a few locations may see
temps dip into the 30s. The ridge collapses Sunday as it slides east.
Temperatures will max out in the 70s before dipping back into the
40s and 50s overnight. High pressure and limited moisture will keep
showers out of the region through the weekend.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Next week looks to be more active, at least compared to the past
several weeks, but there is also quite a bit of uncertainty. Looking
at the large scale pattern, models continue to have an upper level
low develop somewhere over the central part of the country but they
all differ on the low`s location and movement during the week.
Depending on how far south the low drifts, that will open the door
for Gulf moisture to be advected northward. Monday into Tuesday, the
region will be in the right entrance region of a weak, upper level
jet. A surface warm front also moves through then, so this period
will be the best chance for the next round of showers. Weak
disturbances continue to move through midweek as well, but shower
chances are lower. With all that said, these off-and-on showers are
not expected to significantly improve the abnormally dry conditions
across the area. Conditions will be milder throughout the long term
period with highs in the 70s/80s and lows in the 50s/60s.&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected at all terminals through 06Z
tonight. Between 08-09Z, ceilings are expected to lower behind a
cold front crossing the area from northwest to southeast,
leading mostly MVFR conditions around RME, SYR, ITH and BGM.
Fuel-alt ceilings can`t be ruled out, especially around ITH.
With the increase in cloud cover overnight and early tomorrow,
fog is expected to be more patchy in nature. Given the struggle
for low clouds/fog this morning to settle in at ELM, any
restrictions toward daybreak should be brief.
Ceiling restrictions are expected to lift by 15-16Z tomorrow
with the rest of the day VFR. Northwest winds will start to
increase later in the morning and into tomorrow afternoon with
gusts of 15-20 knots possible, especially toward and beyond the
end of the TAF.
Outlook...
Friday afternoon through Monday...VFR, except typical valley
fog likely each late night/early morning for at least KELM.
Tuesday...Isolated to scattered showers with occasional
restrictions possible.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BTL
NEAR TERM...BTL
SHORT TERM...BTL
LONG TERM...BTL
AVIATION...DK

NWS BGM Office Area Forecast Discussion