Ramrod Key, Florida Weather Forecast Discussion

653
FXUS62 KKEY 040237
AFDKEY
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
1037 PM EDT Fri Oct 3 2025
...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1002 PM EDT Fri Oct 3 2025
The overall makeup of our weather has not changed much in the
past 24 hours. A strong surface high remains planted across the
eastern United States and adjacent Atlantic. However, the
strongest breezes are bottled up to our north due to a weakness
festering over the Bahamas. Some stronger breezes have been able
to sneak into our area and winds are broadly moderate out of the
northeast to east. Precipitable water remains near seasonal norms
with substantial dry air present aloft. However, the lower levels
have moistened some. Cape is modest, but inhibition is nearly non
existent. All this has been supportive of an overall increase in
convective coverage across the forecast area, most of which have
remained off of land.
No substantial change is expected through the overnight. The
strong high will remain to our north and weak troughing, while
edging closer, will remain over the Bahamas. The environment is
expected to remain supportive of scattered showers. Thunderstorms
should remain relatively rare due to the middling CAPE, dry air
aloft, and strong shearing above 700 mb. Will maintain high chance
PoPs. Expect overnight lows to range in the upper 70s with dew
points in the mid 70s.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1002 PM EDT Fri Oct 3 2025
The combination of strong high pressure over the eastern United
States and a weak trough over the Bahamas is resulting in moderate
to fresh northeast to easterly breezes across Keys waters.
Cautions remain in effect for the deep gulf waters until winds
decrease overnight. In addition, a Small Craft Advisory remains in
effect for the Upper Keys due to an incoming northerly swell.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 1002 PM EDT Fri Oct 3 2025
VFR conditions will prevail at the island terminals overnight.
With that said, a wetter than normal pattern is in place across
the area, and may result in periods of sub VFR conditions.
Surface winds will be gentle to moderate out of the northeast to
east.
&&
.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 AM EDT Saturday for FLZ076.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Saturday for GMZ052-072.
&&
$$
Public/Marine/Fire...11
Aviation/Nowcasts....11
Data Acquisition.....MC
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NWS KEY Office Area Forecast Discussion