Recluse, Wyoming Weather Forecast Discussion

778
FXUS63 KUNR 231121
AFDUNR
Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
521 AM MDT Tue Sep 23 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dry and mild/warm
&&
.DISCUSSION...(Today Through Monday)
Issued at 217 AM MDT Tue Sep 23 2025
08z surface analysis had low over eastern NE with secondary cold
front into southeastern WY. High pressure building over western
WY/much of MT. Water vapour loop had upper low over northeast UT
with shortwave spinning down over the SD/NE border per regional
radar loop. Except most precipitation to be south of the CWA by
12z.
Today/tonight, UT upper low sinks south as it absorbed into mean
upper trough of the eastern CONUS. Upper ridge builds from the
Rockies into the northern Plains. Surface high sinks south with
weak return flow tonight. Temperatures will be near guidance.
Wednesday through Monday, upper ridge moves across the plains as
westerly flow aloft becomes established. Moisture return will be
blocked with weak synoptic/frontal passages expected. Result will
be dry and mild/warm conditions with medium to high confidence.
Temperatures will average 5-10F above normal, potentially
extending well into October per long term guidance.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS Through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued At 520 AM MDT Tue Sep 23 2025
Leftover -shra near the SD/NE border areas will end early this
morning. VFR conditions are expected through the period.
&&
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...Helgeson
AVIATION...Helgeson

NWS UNR Office Area Forecast Discussion