Rhoadesville, Virginia Weather Forecast Discussion

389
FXUS61 KLWX 221441
AFDLWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
1041 AM EDT Mon Sep 22 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Weak high pressure will remain wedged east of the Appalachians today
while a warm front continues north of the area. An area of low
pressure and its associated cold front will eject out of the
central Plains and upper Midwest toward the Ohio River Valley
Tuesday into Wednesday. The front will be slow to cross the area
with a series of low pressure systems traversing the boundary
through Saturday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
The morning frontal analysis indicates high pressure remains
along the Eastern Seaboard. A light onshore flow persists which
has led to a rather pronounced stratus deck which has banked up
against the Blue Ridge Mountains. As noted on GOES-19 visible
satellite imagery, these clouds have only minimal breaks in
them. Thus, have increased cloud cover east of the Blue Ridge
through the early afternoon hours. However, do expect the late
September solar insolation angle to eventually win out in the
end.
Upper level troughing and its resultant area of low pressure
will inch closer to the region from the central Plains and upper
Midwest heading into the midweek period. Several pieces of
shortwave energy will eject out ahead of the main low pressure
system and front in south to southwest flow. The first area of
energy that we`ll be tracking looks to work out of the Tennessee
River Valley toward West Virginia and far western Virginia this
afternoon. With that said, expect an uptick in showers and
thunderstorms mainly west of the Blue Ridge this afternoon and
evening. Highest coverage looks to be confined to areas west of
I-81/west of the Alleghenies given the main forcing remaining
northwest of the region. Severe weather does not appear to be a
concern nor is the issue of flooding given recent drought
issues. We`ll have to monitor any thunderstorms for the
potential for training given anomalously high PWATs for this
time of year. This is especially true over western portions of
Pendleton, Garrett, and Highland counties where 1.50-4 inches of
rain fell on Friday (9/20/25). Given the increased westerly
flow at the 500mb level confidence is low for any widespread
flash flooding/poor drainage issues to occur.
Have kept Pops between 25 to 50 percent mainly west of I-81 this
afternoon into the evening hours. Overall storm coverage will be
spotty to scattered. Elsewhere, expect partly cloudy to mostly
cloudy skies with an emphasis on more sun, especially east of the
mountains given the proximity to the wedging surface high. Highs
today will climb back into the upper 70s and low to mid 80s (low 70s
mountains). Overnight lows will fall into the upper 50s and low to
mid 60s. Some river/mountain valley fog is possible during the late
night/early morning hours.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Wedging high pressure will continue to weaken Tuesday as it pushes
further offshore. This will allow the upper level trough and
associated cold front to get even closer to the region. Current
00z guidance hangs the front back across the eastern Great
Lakes and Ohio/Tennessee River Valleys late Tuesday before
sagging south and stalling over northern portions of the
forecast area Wednesday. Several pieces of energy look to
traverse the boundary during this time leading to increased
beneficial rain chances across the region. Shower and
thunderstorm chances will remain scattered Tuesday with a focus
mainly west of the Blue Ridge. Scattered to numerous coverage is
expected Wednesday areawide as the front stalls overhead.
The threat for severe weather remains low with a focus west of the
Blue Ridge Tuesday given the warm and moist airmass overhead. This
threat drops off Wednesday with added cloud cover as the front
stalls nearby. PWATS look to run abnormally high for this time
of year hovering between 1.5-2.0 inches per latest CAMS/synoptic
guidance (75th-90th percentile). The rich moisture combined
with subtle instability on both Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons
will yield fairly efficient downpours out of any convection
that forms. Heavy rainfall will be primary concern with storms,
although gusty winds cannot be ruled out. Any rainfall will
remain beneficial given the recent drought concerns.
Highs Tuesday and Wednesday will climb back into the upper 70s and
low to mid 80s (low 70s mountains). Partly to mostly cloudy skies
are expected Tuesday with mostly cloudy to overcast conditions
Wednesday as the front remains nearby. Overnight lows will fall into
the upper 50s and low 60s to mid 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Low pressure will be tracking from the Midwest into southern Ontario
Thursday into Friday with area under warm and humid air mass.
Showers and thunderstorms are expected in the pre-frontal air mass.
Repeated rounds of convection are possible which should bring
beneficial rainfall. Ensemble guidance indicates the highest rain
chances Thursday and Friday when there is the greatest model
agreement on the approaching forcing (cutoff low). Overall, rainfall
should be beneficial in nature, but will have to keep an eye on
mesoscale features and any local saturation after multiple days of
potential rain.
Drying will begin to take place late Friday night with high pressure
expected to build over the region early next week. Confidence in
this remains low given discrepancies how quickly the trough/low and
its associated cold front depart the region. High pressure looks to
return early next week.
Expect highs in the mid 70 to low 80s outside the mountains.
Overnight lows will remain in the low to mid 60s for most with 50s
west of the Blue Ridge.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Residual MVFR conditions have lingered longer than anticipated
owing to the light onshore flow within the CAD wedge setup.
However, high pressure weakens and winds change back toward
more of a south to southwesterly direction. Consequently, this
will lead to predominantly VFR conditions this afternoon at all
TAF terminals. Some temporary reductions may be noted west of a
line from KMRB/KHGR south to KSHD where spotty to scattered
thunderstorms look to bubble up as a piece of shortwave energy
pivots through. VFR conditions are expected again Tuesday with a
higher chance of sub VFR conditions during the afternoon and
evening hours west of the corridor terminals. Scattered showers
and thunderstorms will likely occur in this area as another
piece of energy associated with an upper level trough and
approaching cold front pushes through. More widespread sub-VFR
reductions are likely Wednesday as a front stalls out over the
region. This will lead to widespread showers and isolated
thunderstorms across the terminals along with periods of low
clouds/fog.
Sub-VFR conditions will likely prevail through Friday with the front
nearby. Highest coverage for showers and thunderstorms appear to be
on Thursday and Friday given the front and cutoff low pressure
system drifting through the region.
&&
.MARINE...
Sub-SCA level winds are expected today through Tuesday as high
pressure drifts offshore. Some brief southerly channeling may
ensue late tonight into Tuesday morning over open waters of the
bay although confidence is low. Sub-SCA level light and variable
winds look to continue Wednesday with a switch back to the east
and southeast Thursday and Friday as a front stalls nearby.
SCA conditions return Thursday night into Friday under another
period of southerly channeling. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms
will also be possible each afternoon and evening Wednesday through
Friday.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Tidal anomalies have increased amidst easterly flow this morning.
Coastal Flood Advisories are in effect for Annapolis for the ongoing
and upcoming tide cycle. Anomalies are forecast to hold relatively
steady today, so additional Advisories may be needed for
sensitive locations late tonight into Tuesday.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...Coastal Flood Advisory until 9 PM EDT this evening for MDZ014.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...EST
NEAR TERM...BRO/EST
SHORT TERM...EST
LONG TERM...ADS/LFR
AVIATION...LFR/BRO/EST
MARINE...LFR/EST
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...LWX

NWS LWX Office Area Forecast Discussion