Ridge, Virginia Weather Forecast Discussion

263
FXUS61 KAKQ 270811
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
411 AM EDT Sat Sep 27 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A slow moving cold front lingers over the area through today,
with an upper trough settling over the Southeast by the weekend.
This will bring more unsettled conditions through the weekend.
Impacts from any tropical development would be late Monday
through Tuesday night if they occur. However, uncertainity
remains high regarding this.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 350 AM EDT Saturday...
Key Message:
- Moderate to heavy rain showers continue to prevail this morning
across the area.
- Additional heavy showers and embedded thunderstorms are expected
this afternoon.
- Flood Watch issued for the eastern half of the area as some areas
could see between 2-3" of rain in a short period.
Early morning weather analysis shows a upper low centered over the
deep south and southerly flow aloft over the area. With the
assistance of southerly flow aloft it is allowing for deep moisture
to move overhead. PW values this morning are are between 1.9-2.1"
across SE VA and NE NC. moderate to heavy showers and some embedded
thunderstorms continue across the moisture axis this morning
stretching along the I-64 corridor. These showers could still pose
the risk of some isolated Flash Flooding especially along the cold
front to west where the stronger lift is located. Temperatures
remain pretty mild through the morning with temperatures as of 2:30
in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Through the rest of the morning the
moisture axis should continue to push north and additional moisture
will continue to advect across the eastern half of the area. The
moderate to heavy rain along the moisture axis should dwindle.
While further to the west, the showers should continue as the cold
front slowly pushes towards the east. Temperatures should not change
much through the morning as clouds and showers persist and will
remain mild with lows this morning in the middle to upper 60s inland
and lower 70s to the west.
Over the course of the day southerly flow aloft will remain across
the area continuing to advect additional moisture. While at the
surface, the slow moving cold front is progged to slowly advance
east. Showers and storms will be continue across central and south
central VA in the late morning to early afternoon. While across the
east there will be less coverage of showers and storms. Then by mid
afternoon widespread showers and storms are expected  to develop
across the east along the slow moving cold front.  PW values will
have climbed throughout the day across the east and will be between
2-2.2", so locally heavy rainfall will continue to be the main
concern. While most areas may not see the heaviest rainfall. areal
average rain amounts of ~1" are likely with localized amounts of ~3"
expected in spots. In fact, the 00Z HREF continues to hint on a
bullseye of 30% of 3" of rain within an hour across SE VA this
afternoon. However, some newest guidance continues to hint on a
further north solution. With taking these both solutions into
account and knowing the atmosphere will be over all conducive for
instances of  flash flooding a Flood Watch has been issued from the
Rappahannock river south towards the NC border covering the majority
of eastern VA. By late evening the convection gradually lowers with
he loss of daytime heating. Highs today will only be in the lower-
mid 70s NW with upper 70s-lower 80s SE. With lows in the low to
middle 60s inland and upper 60s along the coast.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 350 AM EDT Saturday...
Key Messages:
- Shower chances continue on Sunday, but with little additional rain
  and less in the way of thunder chances.
- Shower chances increase again on Monday.
By Sunday the upper trough will be over most of the area. While
LLVL flow becomes more N-NE PW will still remain high. This will
allow for sable conditions for clouds and light to moderate showers.
The best chance for a possible thunderstorm will be across NE NC
where better daytime heating is expected to take place. QPF
continues to decease to ~.1" on Sunday. WPC has maintained Marginal
Excessive Rainfall Risk for the far southern portion of NE NC. Highs
for sunday will be much cooler than the previous days as the cloud
cover persists. Highs will be in the  middle 70s inland and upper
70s across the far southeast. By Sunday night temperatures will drop
into the lower to middle 60s inland and upper 60s along the coast.
By Monday, a shortwave trough will move over the area helping push
the stalled frontal boundary off the coast and bring rain chances
back into the forecast. Highs Monday will be in the middle to upper
70s. During this time PTC-9 will continue to advance norther through
the Western Bahamas Sunday and should be somewhere off the coast of
Florida by Monday.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 350 AM EDT Saturday...
Key Messages:
- A unsettled pattern continues next week.
- Humberto is forecast to become a major hurricane well offshore and
  PTC-9 is now off the coast of Cuba and south of the Bahamas.
Early next week the closed upper low will remain over the Mid-
Atlantic and Southeast. While further north a strong high builds
over Quebec and Ontario. Still a lot of uncertainty remains. The
recent 00z model and ensemble guidance consensus show the high
slowly building south toward the eastern Great Lakes by the middle
to end of next week. PTC-9 will likely move N/NW to a position near
the Southeast CONUS coast. There still remains the question if we
see direct impacts of PTC-9. If there are direct impacts from PTC-9,
they would likely be from late Monday through Tuesday night.
Nevertheless, unsettled weather conditions and rain chances will
continue through early next week. Depending the tack of PTC-9
locally heavy rainfall is certainly possible across parts of the
area which could lead to flooding especially with the rain already
expected this weekend. NE winds are likely Tuesday night bringing
breezy conditions across the area. By Wed/Wed night winds will
increase as cold air is advected into the region as the strong high
building southward. This will also allow for drier weather to
finally return. Mainly dry through Fri with rain chances potentially
returning by next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 130 AM EDT Saturday...
VFR conditions at all sites to start off the forecast period.
Scattered showers and storms continue, mainly near and south of
RIC and west of the SE terminals. Showers (and isolated storms)
as well as lower CIGs will spread from south to north later
this morning. CIGs generally stay (low-end) MVFR through the
morning, but IFR CIGs are possible after 10z at ECG. Widespread
showers are likely at RIC throughout the day on Saturday, with
showers and thunderstorms likely at the coastal terminals during
the afternoon and evening. Degraded flight conditions will
likely prevail through much of the day on Saturday, though CIGs
should rise to MVFR (or even VFR) near the coast (but could
remain IFR throughout the day at RIC).
Outlook: Precipitation decreases in coverage Saturday night,
but sub-VFR CIGs likely linger across the terminals. A chc of
showers lingers into Sunday and Monday with sub-VFR conditions
possible at times.
&&
.MARINE...
As of 305 AM EDT Saturday...
- Sub-SCA through the weekend, with scattered showers and
  storms today and Saturday.
- Deteriorating conditions and building NE winds are likely from
  for the first half of next week. Continue to monitor the
  forecast and the latest information from the National
  Hurricane Center regarding the progress of Humberto and
  Potential Tropical Cyclone 9 (formerly Invest 94L).
Latest analysis reveals a surface cold front just south of the local
waters early this morning. Weak high pressure remains well offshore,
with a second area of high pressure well off to the NW. Winds remain
light out of the E-NE ~5-10kt. Seas 2ft and waves are 1ft or less.
The front nudges offshore this morning. Additional multiple
waves of showers/thunderstorms are expected today, moving NNE
along the stalled front and lifting it back north as a warm
front. winds veer around to the SSE this afternoon and evening
over the lower bay and central and southern waters. Showers and
storms eventually weaken as the front becomes a bit more diffuse
with time tonight and Sunday, with winds veering back around to
the NNW tomorrow ~10kt. Seas 2-3 ft, waves 1-2 ft.
Attention then turns to the former AL94, now known as Potential
Tropical Cyclone 9, and quite possibly soon to be Tropical
Cyclone Imelda. By any name, there remains a fair amount of
spread amongst the deterministic and multi-model ensembles
regarding the handling of this system. At this time, solutions
range from a landfall over the coastal Carolinas to keeping the
system offshore. If the latter were to occur, it would be
largely due to the influence of powerful Hurricane Humberto out
in the central Atlantic. The latest NHC track for Humberto shows
the system increasing speed NW and remaining well offshore,
though in any scenario, Humberto will send increasingly strong
long- period swell toward the local waters for much of the first
half of next week, which will quickly build seas Monday through
midweek. Strong high pressure building to the north will lock
in a prolonged period of elevated NE winds and high surf across
our area due to the tightening pressure gradient and incoming
strong E-SE swell. NE winds pick up to 15-20kt Monday and Monday
night with seas increasing AOA 4-5ft. Winds and seas increase
further Tues into Wed with increasing potential for gale force
gusts Wed afternoon and evening.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...Flood Watch from noon EDT today through this evening for
     VAZ081>090-092-093-095>098-518-520-522>525.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ERI/HET
NEAR TERM...HET
SHORT TERM...ERI/HET
LONG TERM...ERI/HET
AVIATION...AJB/HET
MARINE...MAM

NWS AKQ Office Area Forecast Discussion