Ridgefield, North Carolina Weather Forecast Discussion

848
FXUS62 KRAH 260702
AFDRAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
300 AM EDT Fri Sep 26 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A surface cold front will slowly push south into the region late
tonight and Friday. The front will become nearly stationary over
the southern and eastern portions of NC over the weekend. This
occurs while low pressure in the mid and upper levels becomes
nearly stationary over the southern Appalachians and TN Valley
this weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 215 AM Friday...
* Shower/storm chances increase today/tonight, with heavy downpours
  possible.
Increasing PW today, including an eastward bump to the plume of
deepest and most anomalously high moisture further into the CWA,
combined with bursts of dynamic forcing for ascent and sea-breeze
induced lift will result in fairly high chances for showers and
storms, skewed a bit later in the day than usual, from very late
afternoon through much of tonight. The latest surface analysis shows
the slow-moving or nearly stationary frontal zone from the central
Gulf coast NE along the NC Appalachians to NYC and New England,
aligned roughly along the southwesterly upper jet core, on the E
side of the mid-upper trough from Quebec through the Ohio Valley and
lower Miss Valley. This trough axis will pivot slightly
counterclockwise today with a closed low forming over central TN
tonight, which will nudge the trough eastward and cause a reload of
the upper jet, such that, after being in the diffuse right entrance
region last evening, we will again be within a region of increasing
upper divergence this evening and tonight. With a band of PW 120%-
140% of normal holding over central NC, a series of weak
perturbations noted in GOES WV imagery will track from the FL
Panhandle and GA today, adding to the forcing for ascent along with
the expected moderate CAPE this afternoon (although clouds will
temper this somewhat in the Piedmont). The latest high-res models
and ensemble systems favor convection really ramping up in the late
afternoon in the SE CWA, then spreading into the Piedmont through
the evening and overnight hours corresponding to the uptick in
dynamic lift. Despite the recent relative dry spell over much of the
state, the PWs near 2" and a deep LCL-0C depth near 4 km, along with
fairly high probabilities of 3" amounts in 3 hrs over the W Piedmont
this evening/tonight are cause for concern that isolated torrential
rainfall could produce flooding. Confidence isn`t quite high enough
yet for a flash flood watch, with uncertainty in both coverage and
in pinpointing locations of greatest risk, especially given the
abnormally dry to moderate drought conditions in place, but we will
monitor for this possibility through today. Expect slightly lower
temps today, peaking in the low 80s NW to near 90 SE, but with still-
high humidity. Warm lows in the upper 60s-lower 70s. -GIH
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 AM Friday...
* Numerous showers and storms may generate areas of heavy rainfall,
  and a flash flood watch may be needed.
The mid level low will continue to drift toward far SW NC Sat/Sat
night, as the surface frontal zone drifts E into central NC. Deep
moisture will persist, especially over the central and eastern CWA
where PWs are projected to be 140-160% of normal. Low and mid level
flow will back during the day to S and SSW and strengthen, tapping
both Gulf and Atlantic moisture, with the LCL-0C depth remaining
near 4 km. Deep forcing for ascent will remain, esp over the E CWA
where rounds of upper divergence in the RR upper jet quadrant will
be maximized atop confluent 850 mb flow. Will have likely to
categorical pops, peaking late morning through the early evening,
before the highest pops shift into the Coastal Plain overnight. High-
res model guidance favors high convective coverage Sat into Sat
night, with a high potential for 3" in 3 hours over the NE CWA, and
if we indeed see pockets of moderate to heavy rain today, any
additional heavy rain Sat could be highly problematic. There`s a bit
too much uncertainty for a flood watch at this time, but it may
ultimately be warranted. Widespread rainfall amounts of 0.5-1.0" are
expected Sat/Sat night (with locally heavier amounts, and all on top
of the 0.5-1.0" totals anticipated today). With considerable
cloudiness, highs should be low, in the mid 70s to lower 80s,
followed by lows Sat night in the mid 60s W (west of the frontal
zone) and upper 60s/around 70 E. -GIH
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 230 AM Friday...
* While there is still significant uncertainty in the future track
  and intensity of 94L, the chances for wind, rainfall, and rip
  current impacts for a portion of the Southeast coast are
  increasing.
A complicated and highly sensitive forecast is expected to evolve
across the Southeast CONUS driven by two features that are known for
low predictability forecasts until they are sampled adequately
(closed mid-level lows and tropical systems that have not formed
yet). The former is now more readily being sampled and providing
increased confidence in its placement and evolution by increased
supplemental upper-air soundings occurring across the Southeast, but
the latter is still about 24-48 hours from forming. Pinning an exact
center of circulation of Invest 94L after several land interactions
around the Dominican Republic, Haiti, and eventually the Bahamas
will be the final key to the puzzle that is currently lacking.
Although deterministic guidance has been showing a potential
scenario of landfall somewhere from the GA to NC coast Mon or Tues,
the multi-model ensemble approach (all 100 members from EPS, GEFS,
CMC) still shows significant differences in 94L`s center location by
Mon afternoon (with 75% or members having its center somewhere
within a 900 mile distance between north-central Cuba and the NC
coast Mon afternoon). The forecast is far from a slam dunk and a lot
can/will change, but there is enough support to warrant at least
increased awareness on the forecast for 94L with subsequent forecast
updates, especially after the circulation center is established. We
are encouraging residents to review their emergency action plans and
emergency kits.
With that said, let`s dive into the latest forecast. Regardless of
direct tropical impacts from 94L, a prolonged period of light to
moderate rain will bring mostly beneficial rainfall to central NC
Sun through potentially Tues night as anomalous moisture remains in
place with lingering influence from the mid-upper low just to our
west. Some northward advection of tropical moisture well ahead of
any tropical system could combine with marginal instability to
result in pockets of heavy rainfall, likely maximized in the
afternoon and late evening each day, and bring a risk for localized
urban and poor drainage flooding. From Wed and beyond, high pressure
is expected to move across the Northeast and down into the Mid-
Atlantic with a return to below normal PWAT values, suggesting a
drying trend for mid-late week.
As far as the latest on 94L, with the 12z multi-model ensemble
guidance and 18z global ensemble guidance, there is now moderate
confidence that it will track west-northwest between Cuba and the
Bahamas before turning north through the northern Bahamas. After
which point, forecast confidence decreases drastically with a
variety solutions ranging from staying out to sea and kicking
towards Bermuda, riding north and remaining well off the NC coast,
or making landfall along the Southeast coast somewhere between
southern FL to eastern NC. We expect forecast confidence in its
track to greatly increase over the next 24-48 hours, so stay tuned,
stay prepared, and be ready to take action/preparations if
necessary.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 1205 AM Friday...
Unsettled weather will continue over central NC terminals through
tonight, as we stay in a deep moist flow out of the southwest,
prompting development of early-morning low clouds and patchy fog,
esp in the N and W, lasting through mid morning, followed by high
coverage of late-day and evening showers and storms.
INT/GSO: A deep stream of moisture from the FL panhandle through W
NC will mean periods of light showers and perhaps an isolated storm
through daybreak, producing brief MVFR conditions. There is a good
chance for IFR/LIFR cigs to develop 07z-09z, with MVFR vsbys in fog,
lasting through sunrise followed by a slow improvement through MVFR
cigs to VFR by ~16z. Then, scattered to numerous showers and storms
are expected to pop up and pass near or over these sites starting
around 19z, lasting through the evening hours with a chance for sub-
VFR cigs/vsbys and gusty/shifting winds, although adverse aviation
conditions won`t last this entire time. Any showers and storms will
slowly weaken and decrease after midnight. Surface winds will stay
light and variable, except from the SW 5-10 kts during the
afternoon.
RDU/RWI: While isolated showers are possible early this morning, VFR
conditions will largely hold until around 08z-10z, when areas of IFR
stratus and isolated MVFR fog patches are expected to form. VFR
conditions should return by 13z-15z, then we`ll see scattered to
numerous showers and storms affect these terminals starting around
20z-21z and lasting through the evening, before slowly weakening and
decreasing overnight. Surface winds will be light mainly from the
SW, generally under 10 kts.
FAY: Any showers should stay NW of here this morning, and the risk
for any low clouds or fog is also very low, leaving largely VFR
conditions through mid afternoon. Scattered showers and storms are
expected to develop and may affect FAY after 21z, lasting well into
the night, although with a decreasing trend toward the end of the
TAF valid period. Surface winds will be 10 kts or less from the SW.
Looking beyond 06z Fri, another round of sub-VFR stratus or fog is
expected mainly at INT/GSO/RDU 08z-14z Sat. As a slow moving front
settles into the area and stalls, and an upper level trough eases
into the Carolinas from the west through the weekend, unsettled
weather will hold through at least Sun night, with a greater-than-
usual chance for morning fog/stratus and scattered to numerous
showers and storms. A potential tropical low may approach the
Carolina coast and begin to affect central NC starting as early as
Mon, however uncertainty is high. Please consult the National
Hurricane Center at hurricanes.gov for the latest information.-GIH
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RAH
NEAR TERM...Hartfield
SHORT TERM...Hartfield
LONG TERM...Swiggett
AVIATION...Hartfield

NWS RAH Office Area Forecast Discussion