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Rising Star, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

959
FXUS64 KFWD 211037
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 537 AM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025

...New Aviation...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered storms will move across the region this afternoon and evening, with the potential for strong to severe wind gusts and hail.

- Above normal temperatures and low storm chances will continue Monday and Tuesday.

- A cold front will move through North Texas Tuesday night with increasing storm chances and cooler weather through Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 123 AM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025/ /Today through Monday Afternoon/

Isolated to scattered showers and storms are expected to continue in our northwestern counties as we head through the morning hours in response to a minute disturbance passing across the Southern Plains. Additional showers and storms are expected to develop this afternoon along a dryline to our west and a lingering outflow boundary to our northwest and move southeast as a stronger mid- level shortwave disturbance transits across the Southern Plains. With flow a bit more parallel to the boundary, initially discrete storms will likely grow upscale into one or more clusters as they advance. While the overall severe threat is on the lower end, increasing instability and shear will promote the potential for strong to severe wind gusts and hail within the more robust cells. This is particularly true for the northwestern half of the region, as the severe risk and intensity of storms decreases further southeast. Have expanded and increased forecast PoPs as the base NBM is not picking up on this potential. Otherwise, afternoon highs will peak in the low-mid 90s.

The base of the shortwave will continue moving east overnight and eject to the northeast during the day on Monday. The better lift from the shortwave will remain to our north, keeping the best rain chances north of the Red River. However, there will still be isolated to scattered showers and storms mainly near the Red River as we go through the day. Severe weather is not expected with this activity. Afternoon highs will peak in the 90s again for most. There is also a low potential for some spots out west to reach the 100 degree mark.

Prater

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 123 AM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025/ /Monday Evening Onward/

The big story for the long term forecast will occur during midweek. A shortwave moving onshore in the PACNW will amplify into a stout upper low as it ejects south south-southeast Monday night into Tuesday. As the low continues to swing across the Plains, the system`s attendant cold front will advance south through the region midweek. There is still discrepancies in regards to timing with about 46% of total ensemble members having slower frontal timing on Wednesday, compared to the NAM`s front moving through during the day Tuesday. Nonetheless, this front will bring increased rain chances near the boundary. The exact severe weather threat continues to be uncertain in regards to location and intensity. However, looking at forecast soundings there may be the potential for some strong to severe wind gusts and hail as the front moves through. More details on this will become available as we get closer in time. The front will also be accompanied by a push of cooler air, so expect afternoon highs in the 80s and morning lows in the 50s and 60s as we head toward the end of the week into the weekend.

Prater

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/ /12Z TAFs/

Southerly winds will increase in speed over the course of the morning, settling out around 14 kts for the rest of the afternoon. There still remains the potential for afternoon convection to our northwest to move southeast into the D10 TAF sites between 0-5Z, but direct terminal impacts remain uncertain enough to preclude any TEMPO TSRA at this time. The showers and storms could make a run for Central Texas, but lightning probabilities are low enough to transition to VCSH at ACT between 04-07Z tonight. The rest of the night should remain dry at the TAF sites, with mid-level clouds persisting. MVFR cigs will begin to surge northward early tomorrow morning, potentially reaching ACT at or a little after 12Z.

Prater

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 92 74 94 75 94 / 10 30 5 10 30 Waco 92 73 94 74 95 / 5 20 0 5 20 Paris 91 71 91 73 92 / 10 20 30 20 40 Denton 92 73 94 74 95 / 20 30 10 20 40 McKinney 92 73 92 74 94 / 10 30 10 10 40 Dallas 93 74 95 75 96 / 10 30 5 10 30 Terrell 91 72 92 73 92 / 5 20 5 10 30 Corsicana 92 74 94 75 94 / 5 20 5 5 20 Temple 92 72 94 73 94 / 5 20 5 5 20 Mineral Wells 95 71 98 73 96 / 20 30 5 10 40

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. &&

$$

NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion

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