Rising Star, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

232
FXUS64 KFWD 222322
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
622 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025
...New Aviation...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Isolated thunderstorms are possible through this evening west
  of I-35, some of which may produce strong downburst winds.
- A cold front will move into North Texas Tuesday evening with
  increasing storm chances. Some storms could be severe with
  damaging winds and hail.
- Near normal temperatures will return Wednesday through
  Saturday.
&&
.SHORT TERM... /Issued 1250 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025/
/This Afternoon through Tonight/
The remnants of morning convection continues to decrease in
coverage and intensity as modest warm advection wanes across the
region. Scattered showers will continue for another hour or so
mainly across our northeast counties before the best low level
moisture convergence shifts eastward. This should result in a
quiet but warm afternoon across North Texas with visible satellite
imagery relatively unimpressive at this time.
Our main concern through the rest of the afternoon will be some
low potential for isolated thunderstorms west of I-35 where a
dryline nudges toward our far western counties. While large scale
forcing for ascent will be negligible, modest low level moisture
convergence along the boundary could allow for a few storms to
develop within an uncapped deeply mixed boundary layer. This
threat is conditional and will be handled with 10% PoPs, however,
any storms that develop would be accompanied by a localized wind
threat and perhaps some severe hail.
We`ll also be watching additional convection across parts of
Oklahoma later this afternoon and tonight as this activity should
move east-southeast. Mid and upper level steering flow is a little
more westerly tonight as opposed to northwest which should keep
the bulk of any convection north of the Red River overnight.
Dunn
&&
.LONG TERM... /Issued 1250 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025/
/Tuesday through Saturday/
Attention then quickly turns to an amplifying central CONUS trough
and associated shortwave that will dig across the Rockies during
the day Tuesday. This will effectively send a cold front southward
into the region late Tuesday evening. Ahead of the front`s
arrival, an area of low pressure will deepen across southwest
Oklahoma while strong surface heating results in an increasingly
unstable atmosphere across North Texas, particularly north of
I-20. Increasing low level moisture convergence into this surface
low and along the approaching boundary along with an increase in
mid and upper level winds should result in scattered deep
convection developing by late afternoon and early evening across
our north and northwest counties. This activity should initially
be ahead of the cold front and will pose a threat for damaging
winds and large hail. Farther east, across our northeast counties,
low level flow will be a little more backed and there will be at
least a brief window for a low end threat of a tornado during the
late evening hours when the low level jet strengthens a bit. These
briefly favorable wind fields will veer quickly ahead of the front
as it spreads southward across the Red River. Convection will
increase in coverage through the late night hours along and behind
the front with the overall severe weather threat decreasing some
into early Wednesday morning. All of this activity will continue
to move south into South Texas during the day Wednesday leaving
behind cooler and slightly drier air. Near normal temperatures are
expected through the rest of the week and into next weekend.
Dunn
&&
.AVIATION... /NEW/
/00z TAFs/
Convection is underway west of the TAF sites as of 23z, but this
activity is expected to remain west of D10 before eventually
dissipating later this evening. VFR conditions will prevail at
the D10 TAF sites through the period, but at Waco, a stratus
intrusion could result in brief MVFR cigs around and shortly
after daybreak tomorrow morning before this cloud deck scatters
by midday. Southerly winds of 10-15 kts will prevail with a few
higher daytime gusts. At the very end of the valid TAF period, a
cold front will enter North Texas accompanied by scattered
thunderstorms. VCTS will be introduced at the end of the extended
DFW TAF, with the front`s passage and associated wind shift likely
to occur after 06z Wednesday morning.
-Stalley
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    76  96  72  83  66 /   0  10  80  50   0
Waco                75  96  74  83  67 /   0   5  50  70  10
Paris               73  93  70  82  64 /   5  20  80  50   0
Denton              74  95  68  83  62 /   5  20  80  40   0
McKinney            75  95  71  83  64 /   5  10  80  50   0
Dallas              76  96  73  84  67 /   0  10  70  50   5
Terrell             73  94  72  83  64 /   0   5  70  60   5
Corsicana           76  95  75  85  67 /   0   5  60  70  10
Temple              73  96  73  85  65 /   0   5  40  70  20
Mineral Wells       73  97  69  83  61 /   5  20  80  50   0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$

NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion