204 FXUS64 KOHX 270330 AFDOHXArea Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 1030 PM CDT Fri Sep 26 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...
.KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1030 PM CDT Fri Sep 26 2025
- Overall dry weekend with above-normal temperatures.
- Rain chances next week depend on the tropics.
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.SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Sunday Night) Issued at 1030 PM CDT Fri Sep 26 2025
Some patchy fog is possible after midnight tonight, with the highest likelihood on the Cumberland Plateau. With overnight lows in the 50s, it will certainly feel like Fall in the morning. As the upper low keeps spinning over Middle Tennessee into the weekend, expect some slight chances of thunderstorms to linger in the east. These will be confined to the Cumberland Plateau, with a 50 - 60% chance of a sprinkle in Crossville through Saturday afternoon. Highs will top out as warm as the mid 80s.
Sunday, the upper low will be far enough to our east that rain will not be a concern and temperatures will once again top out in the mid 80s.
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.LONG TERM... (Monday through next Saturday) Issued at 1030 PM CDT Fri Sep 26 2025
Starting the work week, an upper level low will be positioned to our east over the eastern seaboard and an upper level ridge will be over the central plains. This puts us in NW flow aloft, allowing for nearly daily rain chances in middle Tennessee. Concern remains on the accuracy of this forecast due to the tropical disturbance. If it gets pulled ashore on the eastern seaboard, where it comes ashore and tracks will impact our rain chances next week drastically. Until we know more certainty of the track of the system, it`s hard to say how much rain middle Tennessee could receive. Temperature wise, highs in the mid to upper 80s will continue into mid-week next week.
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.AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 603 PM CDT Fri Sep 26 2025
VFR conditions prevail with light northerly winds. Patchy fog is expected to develop overnight, bringing IFR/LIFR visibilities to SRB and CSV and MVFR visibilities to CKV. Conditions will improve back to VFR between 14Z and 16Z. There`s a low chance for showers across the Plateau Saturday afternoon at SRB and CSV. Probabilities remain too low to include in TAFs at this time.
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.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 62 85 60 87 / 0 0 0 0 Clarksville 58 85 57 87 / 0 0 0 0 Crossville 58 76 55 79 / 20 30 0 0 Columbia 59 84 57 85 / 0 0 0 0 Cookeville 59 79 57 81 / 10 20 0 0 Jamestown 58 78 56 80 / 10 30 0 0 Lawrenceburg 58 81 56 83 / 0 0 0 0 Murfreesboro 60 84 58 86 / 0 0 0 0 Waverly 56 83 57 85 / 0 0 0 0
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.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. &&
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SHORT TERM...Holley LONG TERM....Holley AVIATION.....Clements
NWS OHX Office Area Forecast Discussion