Rule, Arkansas Weather Forecast Discussion

246
FXUS64 KTSA 171038
AFDTSA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
538 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1209 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025
- Above average temperatures continue today with low to medium
   /10-40 percent/ shower/storm this afternoon and evening.
-  Shower and thunderstorm chances increase Thursday into Friday as
   a weak cold front and approaching upper low influence the
   region. Temps return to near seasonal normal.
- At least low shower and storm chances linger into early next week
   as confidence remains low on how the upper air pattern
   evolves.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 1209 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025
Above normal temps continue on Wednesday with isolated to
scattered afternoon storms again expected. Localized strong
downburst winds will continue to be a risk with the strongest
storms. The approaching weak cold front will approaching NE OK
Wed evening with a corridor of showers and storms marking its
advance. The overall east and southward advance of the precip
will likely remain confined to NE OK.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 1209 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025
The frontal boundary likely stalls across the region on Thursday
while the stronger flow on the southern periphery of the central
Plains upper low overspreads the boundary through the day. This
should result in convection increasing in coverage across the
entire forecast area during the day Thursday and continuing into
the overnight hours while the composite storm cold pool helps
push the frontal boundary south of the area. Locally heavy rains
and a few strong storms will be possible during this period.
Lesser precip coverage on Friday but likely the coolest day as the
upper trough axis passes and cloud cover remains. Temps warm into
the weekend but remain near seasonal normals. Precip coverage is
more uncertain over the weekend into early next week as the flow
aloft returns to a more zonal or northwesterly pattern between
the departing upper low and the upper ridge over the southwest
CONUS. Daily precip chances will be retained with details refined
with updated forecasts.
Forecast uncertainty extends into early next week as the pattern
is expected to amplify, however the placement of the resultant
ridge trough locations vary amongst guidance. The forecast will
continue near or slightly above seasonal normal temps and also low
daily precip chances.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 538 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025
IFR conditions are ongoing at FYV with potential for such
continuing just past daybreak. Potential for MVFR visibilities
will also continue at BVO. On-station thunderstorm impacts this
afternoon into early evening remain most likely at the W AR
terminals, with lesser potential in E OK. After a lull into early
Thursday morning, additional thunderstorms moving in from the
north and west may impact the NE OK sites, which will be covered
by PROB30 groups for now. Yet another round of lowered
visibilities is likely at FYV toward daybreak Thursday, with a
prevailing group for MVFR visibilities included for now and
potential for a mention of IFR conditions in later issuances.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   93  70  88  67 /  20  30  50  60
FSM   95  70  93  69 /  30  10  30  40
MLC   94  68  91  66 /  10  20  50  60
BVO   92  65  87  62 /  20  40  50  70
FYV   92  65  90  64 /  30  10  30  50
BYV   91  65  89  65 /  30  10  30  50
MKO   93  68  90  66 /  20  20  40  60
MIO   92  66  88  65 /  20  30  40  60
F10   94  68  90  65 /  20  20  50  60
HHW   92  68  90  68 /  10  10  20  40
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...22

NWS TSA Office Area Forecast Discussion