Sabine Pass, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

212
FXUS64 KLCH 201815
AFDLCH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
115 PM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Isolated to scattered chances of rainfall increase Sunday while
  carrying into early work week. Conditions will continue to
  remain seasonably warm.
- A trough of low pressure passing to the north will bring higher
  chances of rainfall to area by the midweek as frontal system
  approaches.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 1251 PM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
A weak upper level trough is building across the Deep South this
afternoon into the northern Gulf. However, we continue to see W-NW
flow aloft ushering dry layers throughout the tropopause. With
partly cloudy skies, temperatures will climb a few degrees above
normal toward the lower 90`s. Shower / storm activity has been
isolated offshore where the environmental conditions are more
supportive of precipitation. This will be the case through this
afternoon where generally communities toward the coast and
portions of SETX are favored for isolated activity which should
wain toward dusk.
Model guidance has been suggestive of PoPs increasing overnight
offshore where slightly more baroclinic atmosphere resides. This
activity under a broad southerly regime will push inland through
Sunday morning, however, dry air north of the I-10 corridor appears
to limit the extent of the coverage here. Still caution isolated to
scattered showers/storms may intrude toward interior locations into
the early afternoon. Similar activity is likely as we start the
work week off Monday. A trough begins to organize and amplify
further east of the Mississippi during this time. Increased cloud
cover will likely lower temperatures near 90F for most locations,
however, few backyards may creep a few degrees higher where
clearer conditions persist.
Kowalski / 30
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Friday)
Issued at 1251 PM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
A subtropical high strengthens over Mexico by Tuesday while
troughing slides over the Carolinas. However, surface to 925mb layer
suggests warm, humid advection from the Gulf while the middle
troposphere cools slightly as continental air is entrained into the
area. Lower 90`s still hold on to the CWA while isolated to
scattered chances become a little more widespread. Meanwhile,
cyclogenesis takes place of the Colorado rockies moving into the
midweek. Guidance suggests this feature will wrap into a closed
low over the Missouri Valley while abutting a large high pressure
regime along the Eastern Seaboard. Confidence of a decent frontal
pattern migrating through the area and offshore is growing but not
promising as these features have a tendency to lose latitudinal
acceleration which typically allows the frontal pattern to
transition stationary toward the TX / LA Gulf Coast. With
southerly advection in place, forecast does include more higher
rainfall chances areawide Wednesday. Temperatures are progged to
be a few degrees lower- trending in the upper 80`s while chances
of precipitation decrease through the end of the forecast period
by Friday.
Kowalski / 30
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1251 PM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
Conditions will generally trend VFR through the remainder of the
TAF period into the overnight hours. Terminals toward the coast
carry risk of vicinity showers or storms through next few hours.
Overnight, patches of ground BR under light winds are favored
further inland potentially limiting VIS toward AEX near daybreak
Sunday.
30
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1251 PM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
Calm and benign conditions will continue for the rest of the
weekend outside of thunderstorms. However, isolated to scattered
activity will continue periodically along the coastal waters
through the weekend. As we enter the work week, wind/sea conditions
will begin to deteriorate some as low pressure to the north
increases our pressure gradient, leading to higher winds and
waves. By Monday, winds will be gusting to 15 knots, and waves
will build to 3-4 feet. Near storms, winds and waves will be
higher.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1251 PM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
Despite minimum RH values dropping down into the 40s, isolated to
scattered chances of rainfall are predicted across the area- most
favorably Sunday in the short range. That said, KBDI values above
600 and abnormally dry conditions are additional concerns for
areas that continue to stay dry. Ambient moisture return will
bring minimum RH values back into the 50-60% range, with
widespread rain expected by the midweek ahead.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  68  92  68  91 /   0  30  10  20
LCH  72  89  73  89 /  20  60  20  50
LFT  71  89  71  89 /  10  40  10  40
BPT  73  87  74  89 /  20  70  30  50
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...30

NWS LCH Office Area Forecast Discussion