Saint George, Georgia Weather Forecast Discussion

346
FXUS62 KJAX 162332
AFDJAX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
732 PM EDT Tue Sep 16 2025
...New UPDATE, AVIATION, HYDROLOGY...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 720 PM EDT Tue Sep 16 2025
For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf
Weak high pressure with fairly dry airmass will remain in place
Tonight. This dry airmass will allow temperatures to cool to below
normal readings overnight. The coolest air will be inland as a
light onshore flow keeps coastal areas warmer. The cooler air over
the relatively warmer inland bodies of water, and marshy areas
could result in the formation of patchy fog overnight.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday and Thursday)
Issued at 125 PM EDT Tue Sep 16 2025
Drier air remains in place Wednesday and Thursday, with an onshore
breeze continuing. Wednesday, precipitation chances are near zero
north of Marion and Flagler counties with high temperatures in the
upper 80s to low 90s inland, and mid 80s near the Atlantic coast.
Thursday, a weak front will be stalled over south central Florida,
giving just enough moisture for isolated showers and storms St.
Augustine to Gainesville southward. Again, temperatures will be a
few degrees cooler on the coast due to the onshore winds compared
to inland highs which will be around 90.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 125 PM EDT Tue Sep 16 2025
The aforementioned front lingers over southern Florida through the
weekend while breezy northeasterly winds strengthen. This
combination will increase rain and isolated thunder chances after
a relatively dry week, especially near the northeast Florida and
southeast Georgia coasts. The strong onshore winds will create
dangerous beach and surf conditions, including the risk of tidal
flooding along the St. Johns River basin, ICWW, and Atlantic
coast. Temperatures will be a little above normal Friday and
Saturday, and dip below normal on Sunday with enhanced cloud
cover. Northeasterly winds will keep coastal locations cooler than
inland areas each day and a little warmer each night.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 720 PM EDT Tue Sep 16 2025
Except for inland fog potential overnight at KVQQ and KGNV,
prevailing VFR conditions are forecast for this 00z TAF period.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 125 PM EDT Tue Sep 16 2025
Low pressure approaching the Chesapeake Bay tonight will
eventually pivot northward and will weaken off the Mid-Atlantic
coast on Thursday. High pressure will otherwise remain situated
over our region. Seas of 3 to 5 feet will prevail across our local
waters through tonight, diminishing to 2 to 4 feet from Wednesday
through Thursday night. Strong high pressure will then build
southeastward from Hudson Bay, Canada late this week, with this
feature shifting over New England by Saturday as it wedges down
the southeastern seaboard. Coastal troughing will sharpen over our
near shore waters this weekend, resulting in strengthening
onshore winds, building seas, and an increasing coverage of
showers and thunderstorms across our local waters. Small Craft
Advisory conditions are possible late this weekend and early next
week.
Rip Currents: Breaker heights will subside to the 2-4 foot range
at the northeast FL beaches on Wednesday and Thursday, allowing
for a lower end moderate risk at all area beaches. A high risk is
expected by this weekend as onshore winds strengthen and surf
builds.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1142 AM EDT Tue Sep 16 2025
An unseasonably dry air mass will continue at inland locations
through Thursday, with minimum relative humidity values falling to
the 30-35 percent range for inland southeast GA and the Suwannee
Valley this afternoon, with minimum values of 35-40 percent then
expected on Wednesday and Thursday. North-northeasterly surface
and transport winds will become breezy at coastal locations this
afternoon. Elevated mixing heights at inland locations will
create generally good daytime dispersion values, while fair values
are forecast elsewhere. Lighter easterly surface and transport
winds are expected on Wednesday for northeast and north central
FL, with light southwest to westerly winds across inland southeast
GA. Elevated mixing heights should create fair daytime dispersion
values for most of inland southeast GA, with pockets of poor
values possible. Fair to good daytime dispersion values are
expected elsewhere. Light southeasterly surface and transport
winds are then forecast for inland southeast GA and the northern
Suwannee Valley on Thursday, where elevated mixing heights should
allow for fair to good daytime dispersion values. Easterly surface
and transport winds will prevail elsewhere, with fair to good
daytime dispersion values remaining in the forecast.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 720 PM EDT Tue Sep 16 2025
Areas along the St Johns basin are still slow to drain out during
high tide cycles, due to recent onshore flow. Minor flooding is
expected to continue to be an issue around times of tide through
Wednesday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  89  61  89  65 /   0   0  10   0
SSI  83  69  85  70 /   0   0   0   0
JAX  88  63  88  67 /   0   0   0   0
SGJ  85  71  86  71 /   0   0   0  10
GNV  90  65  91  66 /   0   0   0  10
OCF  89  67  89  69 /   0   0  20  10
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for FLZ125-132-
     137-325-633.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&
$$

NWS JAX Office Area Forecast Discussion