Saint John, Kansas Weather Forecast Discussion

506
FXUS63 KDDC 051819
AFDDDC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
119 PM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Rain and a few thunderstorms continue today.
- Unseasonably cool temperatures today.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 AM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025
WV imagery indicates an upper level shortwave trough cycling
eastward through the Great Lakes, just south of an anchored closed
low in southern Canada. Near the surface, a cold front attendant to
the aforementioned shortwave is pushing southward through eastern
Colorado/western Kansas.
Based on radar trends/CAMs, showers and thunderstorms are likely to
continue/redevelop through at least early/mid-afternoon in vicinity
of the aforementioned cold front sinking slowly south through
southwest/south central Kansas. This is supported by substantial
moisture present combined with H7 frontogenetic banding developing
behind the frontal boundary as it dips farther south into the Texas
Panhandle/western Oklahoma by mid-day. The latest HREF paints a 60-
80% probability of 6-hr QPF exceeding 0.25 of an inch by late
afternoon in a corridor stretching along and south of Highway 50.
Any lingering showers/storms are then expected to dissipate early to
mid-evening as mid-level forcing weakens with the frontal boundary
pushing farther south through Texas. Drier conditions are forecast
Saturday as the closed upper low begins to shift eastward.
Unseasonably cool temperatures are likely today as cooler air spills
southward into western Kansas, lowering H85 temperatures a little
below 10C by late afternoon. Combined with lingering precip/cloud
cover through much of the day, look for highs only up into the 50s(F)
across much of southwest Kansas into south central Kansas, generally
closer to the Oklahoma border, to the lower/mid 60s(F) farther north
toward the I-70 corridor. This is supported by the HREF indicating
only a 20-40% probability of temperatures topping 55F generally south
and east of Dodge City to a 50-70% probability of above 55F farther
west into extreme southwest Kansas. There is a 60-80% probability
of temperatures nudging above 60F in west central Kansas into central
Kansas where some sun may break out by late afternoon.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 117 PM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025
A band of rain will move across KDDC/KLBL and KGCK through 23z.
CIGS will stay in the MVFR/VFR range despite the continuous
rain. Drying will occur by 23-01z as weak surface high pressure
settles across the high plains. Expect light winds through the
period given the weak pressure gradient.
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...JJohnson
AVIATION...Finch

NWS DDC Office Area Forecast Discussion