Salem, Mississippi Weather Forecast Discussion

373
FXUS64 KLIX 201129
AFDLIX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
629 AM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday through Monday night)
Issued at 1106 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
A general region of weak troughing in the upper levels and a broad
low to mid-level surface high parked over the Gulf South will be
the main drivers of the forecast through Monday night. This
overall pattern will keep very dry conditions in place as
northwest flow aloft advects in drier air and subsidence in the
low to mid levels induces a fairly strong mid-level capping
inversion. Precipitable water values will range between 10th and
25th percentiles this weekend before climbing to between 25th and
50th percentiles on Monday. However, despite the dry conditions, a
few short-lived showers and storms will form each afternoon along
weak boundaries like the seabreeze. The HRRR and other CAMS do
show some isolated convection developing during peak heating hours
in the late afternoon when the convective temperature in the
lower 90s is reached. Given this, have opted to go higher than NBM
deterministic guidance and placed a 20 percent chance of rain in
the forecast for parts of the Northshore and coastal Mississippi
tomorrow afternoon. By Sunday afternoon, these high resolution
models are indicating some development once again along the
seabreeze and also along a low level convergence zone in the
Atchafalaya Basin. Temperatures will continue to see a large
diurnal range due to the drier air and largely clear skies
expected. Highs will rise into the low to mid 90s and lows will
fall into the upper 60s and lower 70s each night.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Friday night)
Issued at 1106 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
The low to mid-level high over the area will finally start to
push to the east on Tuesday and Wednesday. This will allow for a
deeper onshore flow pattern to develop and precipitable water
values will rise back to more normal values for this time of year.
In the upper levels, a more zonal flow pattern and some weak
positive vorticity advection in advance of a deepening trough over
the northern Plains will be in place. This pattern will support
diurnally forced scattered shower and thunderstorm development
both days, and temperatures will also fall back to more normal
readings in the mid to upper 80s as dewpoint and humidity values
increase. Overall, a more typical pattern for late September is
expected as we move into the middle of next week.
Heading into Thursday and Friday all of the guidance is in decent
agreement that the northern stream trough over the Plains will
quickly deepen into a very strong longwave trough dominating the
eastern half of the CONUS by Friday afternoon and night. The first
true cold front of the year will accompany this trough and pass
through the forecast Thursday into Thursday night. A band of
showers and storms will likely precede the frontal passage, but
the wind field and orientation of the trough are not supportive of
any severe thunderstorms with this front. At most, a few stronger
cells with some gusty winds and brief downpours will develop. A
surge of very dry air into the area behind the front on Friday
will bring clear skies and dry conditions back to the region.
Temperatures on Thursday will remain near average in the upper
80s and lower 90s, but a decent cold pool will move in on Friday
allowing highs to dip a bit into the mid to upper 80s. Overnight
lows will also drop behind the front for Friday night with most
areas falling into the mid to upper 60s. Only areas along the
immediate coast and south of the lake will remain in the low 70s.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 629 AM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
VFR this taf pack.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1106 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
A weak ridge of high pressure over the area will remain in place
through the weekend allowing for continued calm conditions over
the waters. This will keep winds light and waves and seas at one
foot or less. The high will pull to the east next week, and a
more persistent southerly wind of around 10 knots and waves and
seas of 1 to 2 feet will be in place. The risk of scattered
thunderstorms firing up that could produce locally higher winds
and choppier conditions will also increase for next week.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  93  68  92  67 /  20  10  10  10
BTR  93  69  92  69 /  10   0  20  10
ASD  92  68  91  69 /  10   0  10  10
MSY  91  73  91  74 /  10   0  10  10
GPT  90  71  89  71 /  20  10  10  10
PQL  92  68  90  68 /  20  10  10  10
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...PG
LONG TERM....PG
AVIATION...TE
MARINE...PG

NWS LIX Office Area Forecast Discussion