San Perlita, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

943
FXUS64 KBRO 061814
AFDBRO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
114 PM CDT Sat Sep 6 2025
...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1025 PM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025
- There is a Major (level 3 of 4) Heat Risk this afternoon.
- There is a marginal (level 1 of 4) risk of excessive rainfall
   on Sunday.
- Confidence remains low on total rainfall amounts this weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1243 PM CDT Sat Sep 6 2025
High pressure builds across Baja California and the Great Lakes,
nudging a cold front down into South Texas and trapping remnant
tropical moisture from Lorena across Mexico and Deep South Texas
this weekend into early next week. The morning sounding at BRO
showed a near normal PWAT of 1.86, with most model guidance
boosting PWATs up above 2 inches Sunday into Monday, into the 90th
percentile, even for early September. This yields increased rain
chances into early next week, especially Sunday into Monday, with
the main convective catalyst being the sea breeze or roaming
outflow boundaries.
Model guidance has still been scattered over the past few days,
diminishing the threat or coverage of heavy rainfall, and nudging
confidence in QPF lower. However, with little storm motion and
lighter winds expected, any shower or thunderstorm that develops
could produce persistent heavy rainfall rates of 2 inches or more
per hour.
Regardless, humidity rises today with above normal highs and
poses an increased threat of dangerous heat, with a Major (level 3
of 4) Heat Risk. Increased clouds and limited heating stifle max
temperatures through the remainder of the forecast period,
reducing the heat risk. The sea breeze likely stays active all
week, but probably more scattered than the NBM. Have leaned into
other guidance to diminish POPs a little, especially over the
short term.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1243 PM CDT Sat Sep 6 2025
VFR conditions are expected to generally prevail through the TAF
period with scattered showers and thunderstorms bringing brief
MVFR or IFR ceilings. Confidence is low in coverage and timing of
convection this afternoon, leaning generally east to west with
the sea breeze mid to late afternoon.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1243 PM CDT Sat Sep 6 2025
Generally favorable marine conditions are expected through the
week, with an increased chance of showers and thunderstorms Sunday
into Monday especially. Winds and seas will be elevated near any
showers or thunderstorms.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             79  92  78  91 /  50  60  50  70
HARLINGEN               76  93  74  92 /  40  60  50  60
MCALLEN                 80  95  77  94 /  50  70  50  60
RIO GRANDE CITY         78  95  75  94 /  40  70  40  60
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      81  88  81  87 /  50  60  70  70
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     78  90  77  89 /  50  70  70  70
&&
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...56-Hallman
LONG TERM....56-Hallman
AVIATION...56-Hallman

NWS BRO Office Area Forecast Discussion