Sarasota Square, Florida Weather Forecast Discussion

543
FXUS62 KTBW 230700
AFDTBW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
300 AM EDT Tue Sep 23 2025
...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Tue Sep 23 2025
Deeper moisture will continue to spread north today and this
combined with daytime heating and the sea breezes will lead to
isolated convection far north to numerous over the interior and
southwest Florida during the afternoon and evening.
During Wednesday and Thursday, the ridge axis will become
suppressed south across the Florida peninsula as a cold front
moves into the southeast states. The low level flow will become
rather light south to southwest and with plenty of moisture
across the area we`ll see more isolated to numerous mainly
afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. The highest
PoPs will continue to be over the interior and inland southwest
Florida.
For Friday into Saturday, the frontal boundary will move south
across north Florida and into the region with an increasing
southwesterly flow setting up. There will still be plenty of
moisture across the area for scattered convection Friday and
Saturday, with the highest chances over the interior and eastern
half of the Florida peninsula during each afternoon and evening.
However, with the increasing southwesterly flow we`ll could see
some showers and thunderstorms moving in off the gulf during late
Friday night and Saturday morning.
Early next week the front will be south and east of the area with
high pressure building in from the north shifting the low level
flow to a more northeast to east direction. This will bring some
drier air into the region, but it still looks like there will be
enough moisture for isolated to scattered diurnal convection each
day.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 300 AM EDT Tue Sep 23 2025
VFR conditions are expected to prevail through this morning, then
scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop this afternoon
and evening causing MVFR/local IFR conditions. East to southeast
winds at 5 to 10 knots are forecast through the TAF forecast
period, except there should be a shift to northwest to west during
this afternoon and early evening at TPA, PIE, and SRQ, as the sea
breeze moves inland.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Tue Sep 23 2025
Northeast to east winds will remain less than 15 knots through
midweek with winds turning onshore near the coast as the sea
breeze develops each afternoon and early evening. Winds will shift
to southwest to west late in the week as a cool front approaches
from the north. Moisture will increase for the week leading to
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms each day.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Tue Sep 23 2025
Abundant moisture will remain across the area for the week leading
to increased rain chances, especially over the interior and inland
southwest Florida. Relative humidity values are expected to remain
above critical levels with winds less than 15 mph, except gusty
and erratic in the vicinity of showers and thunderstorms.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  92  78  92  77 /  40  20  30  10
FMY  91  75  92  75 /  70  20  60  20
GIF  93  75  94  74 /  60  30  50  20
SRQ  91  75  91  75 /  50  20  30  10
BKV  92  72  93  71 /  40  10  30  10
SPG  89  78  89  77 /  40  20  30  10
&&
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Tuesday: 6
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Wednesday: 6
For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
    https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.
&&
$$
Close

NWS TBW Office Area Forecast Discussion