Sarita, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

218
FXUS64 KBRO 231725
AFDBRO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1225 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE...
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1217 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
The main focus for the forecast continues to be the unsettled
weather over Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley. While PWAT
values continue to remain around 2 inches indicating that the
environment continues to be moist and favorable for the development
of showers and thunderstorms. While the rain chances are generally
in the range low to medium (20 to 50%), the chances for rain during
the day tomorrow are still uncertain at this point. While the models
have very high chances for rain, those chances are very dependent on
what happens with a frontal boundary that could come through the
region, stall out over the area, or even remain to the north as
well. Because there continues to remain so much uncertainty with
this part of the forecast, PoPs have been lowered from the NBM. At
this point, medium (40-70%) chances for rain are expected for
Thursday, however this is likely to change depending on what occurs
with the front. The last several model trends have the frontal
boundary stall towards the north of the region, but there is still a
chance that the frontal boundary could move further south sometime
late Thursday into early Friday. Will need to continue to monitor
the model trends to see how this frontal boundary evolves. The Storm
Prediction Center does have Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande
Valley in a marginal risk (level 1 of 4) for tomorrow.
As for the temperatures for the forecast period. Highs are typically
in the 90s for the region with a few places in Western Starr and
Zapata reaching into the triple digits. The area is generally in a
moderate (level 2 of 4) for Heat Risk, however today and Wednesday
parts of the region do go into major (level 3 of 4) for Heat Risk.
While the heat indices do remain below the criteria for Heat
Advisory, an SPS for elevated heat indices could be issued for parts
of the area.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1217 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
Generally VFR conditions are expected to persist through the TAF
cycle at all TAF sites. Southeasterly winds are expected to
continue with some gusts around 20 knots are also possible. Low-
level clouds will continue to move through the region due to the
low-level moisture flow. While some showers and thunderstorms are
possible during the afternoon hours, confidence was not high
enough to include them in the TAF package.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1217 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
Marine conditons are generally expected to be favorable with mostly
light to moderate southeasterly winds and low seas around 2 to 3
feet. While showers and thunderstorms chances are expected to be
generally low to moderate (20 to 50%) for the forecast period. There
is a greater chance for more showers and thunderstorms on Thursday
depending on what occurs with a frontal boundary that could move
through the Lower Texas coast on Thursday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             80  94  78  91 /  10  30  30  70
HARLINGEN               77  96  76  92 /   0  30  30  70
MCALLEN                 80  99  79  95 /   0  20  30  60
RIO GRANDE CITY         77 101  76  93 /   0  20  40  60
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      83  89  81  88 /  20  30  50  70
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     79  92  77  89 /  10  30  40  70
&&
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...64-Katz
LONG TERM....64-Katz
AVIATION...64-Katz

NWS BRO Office Area Forecast Discussion