Sartell, Minnesota Weather Forecast Discussion

106
FXUS63 KMPX 281938
AFDMPX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
238 PM CDT Sun Sep 28 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Mostly dry conditions & well-above normal temperatures
  continue through this week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 229 PM CDT Sun Sep 28 2025
Our beautiful weekend in weather is starting to come to a close.
Expect temperatures to jump ~5 degrees tomorrow again, and a
push of mid/high level clouds throughout the day. Localized fog
is possible again for river/stream valleys, especially along
the Chippewa in western Wisconsin.
Though it remains an overall dry forecast, a subtle push of
energy northeastward along the edge of the ridge could provide
a chance for isolated to scattered storms over portions of
central Minnesota Tuesday. Forecast soundings reveal a pocket
of elevated instability on the order of 500-1500 J/kg and a
developing cloud layer around 6-7k feet early Tuesday morning.
The limiting factor will be a wedge of dry air from 750-400 mb.
If you get strong enough lift to overcome this entrainment, it
is conceivable that an area of isolated to scattered storms
develops. That said, the latest NBM has no mention of PoPs and
the CAMs have only just started to get into range. Our forecast
has introduced slight chance PoPs (15-25%) to account for the
low confidence in coverage and development of storms across
central Minnesota.
Very warm conditions continue through the end of the week with
highs in the 80s and lows in the 60s several days. While it
will not be as dry as our recent stretch of weather has been, we
are not expecting the humidity to get out of control during
this stretch of warm weather. Dew points solidly stay in the mid
to upper 50s most days. Long range guidance highlights next
weekend as the best chance (20-50% PoPs) for precipitation
across the Upper MS Valley as the ridge breaks down and lower
h500 heights approach from the west.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1221 PM CDT Sun Sep 28 2025
With high pressure remaining to our east, we`ll maintain south
to southeast winds the whole period. Skies will be clear through
tonight, but we will start to see some cirrus move in during
the day on Monday. Once again, EAU will have a threat for some
river fog near sunrise Monday morning.
KMSP...no additional concerns.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. Wind SSE 5-10 kts.
WED...VFR. Wind SSE 10-20 kts.
THU...VFR. Wind S 10-20 kts.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...BED
AVIATION...MPG

NWS MPX Office Area Forecast Discussion