Saxapahaw, North Carolina Weather Forecast Discussion

051
FXUS62 KRAH 290559
AFDRAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
155 AM EDT Mon Sep 29 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure to the north will combine with the circulation around
Tropical Storm Imelda to bring a cool and moist northeast flow to
the region through late Tuesday. Chilly Canadian high pressure
centered over Quebec and New England will extend into our region on
Thursday and Friday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 232 PM Sunday...
Lowering clouds and increasing rain chances later tonight.
A moist NE flow had developed across NC today as a weak stationary
front had set up along the coast with higher pressure to our north.
This has resulted in generally cloudy skies throughout the region.
Showers were confined to the offshore waters. Temperatures were
noticeably cooler with readings in the mid 70s to near 80 SE. Dew
points remained elevated in the 60s with 70+ readings along the
Coastal Plain. The old mid/upper low over the region will continue
to shear out as ridging from the Atlantic builds westward. This will
force the high moisture levels offshore back inland later tonight.
Expect low stratus again later tonight. In addition, expect some
areas of showers in the southeast by daybreak. Lows 65-70.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 232 PM Sunday...
Showers expected to overspread the region Monday and Monday night.
Surface high pressure will build down the eastern seaboard as TD9 is
forecast to develop well off the FL coast. Even with TD9 not expected
to make direct impacts to the region, the very moist air mass over
the western Atlantic will push back inland with PW`s expected to
reach 2.25 inches SE and 1.5+ NW Monday and Monday night in the
increasing mean easterly flow. Areas of showers are expected to
develop/overspread central NC from the south and east during the
day. Categorical to likely SE to NW POP will be forecast with QPF
remaining fairly 232light during most of the day, reaching 0.1 to
0.25 for many areas. The rainfall rates are expected to increase
with increased banding of rainfall expected later Monday and Monday
night. The heavier QPF is expected in the SE with lighter amounts in
the NW. Highs only in the lower 70s NW and 75-80 SE. Lows in the 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 155 AM Monday...
* Fair and dry weather arrives on Wednesday.
* Another taste of fall on Thursday and Friday with dry conditions
  and highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s.
* The airmass moderates for the weekend.
A complicated upper-air pattern is present on Wednesday morning with
two tropical cyclones off the coast, an anomalous ridge across the
MO Valley and western Great Lakes with lingering upper troughiness
across the eastern Carolinas. The upper trough across the Carolinas
will settle south into GA and FL with ridging folding over into the
mid-Atlantic on Wednesday and into Wednesday night. This will result
in a transition day on Wednesday as dryer air moves into the region
and PW values drop from around 1.25 inches Wednesday morning to
between 0.5 and 0.75 inches by Thursday morning. Mostly cloudy skies
Wednesday morning will give way to a good deal of sunshine by
afternoon. No precipitation is expected and with more sunshine,
highs should moderate a bit with highs ranging from the lower 70s
near the VA border to the mid 70s in the Triad and Triangle and the
upper 70s across the south and in Fayetteville.
A strong Canadian high pressure system centered across easter Quebec
on Thursday morning will shift east and become centered off the New
England Coast by Friday night. The high will extend southwest and
into the mid-Atlantic and Carolinas on Wednesday night and continue
through Friday with perhaps the coolest airmass of the season. A
cool northeast flow will result in morning low-level thickness
values between 1345 and 1360m on Thursday and Friday mornings
resulting in lows in the lower to mid 50s in most locations and some
upper 40s near and north of Interstate 85. Highs will range in the
upper 60s to lower 70s on Thursday and the lower to mid 70s on
Friday. Skies will be partly to mostly clear during the period with
a northeast breeze.
Uncertainly increases for the weekend as the upper ridge slips
south and east and a weakness aloft/upper trough tries to develop
across the northern gulf. The result will be a strengthening
easterly flow of increasing moisture across FL, GA and the coastal
Carolinas which will try to lift north over the weekend, especially
on Sunday. Some guidance paints a limited threat of some patchy rain
or showers across southeastern areas on Sunday but the bulk of the
guidance is dry and will keep the forecast that way for now. The
airmass will moderate and moisten up a bit with dewpoints climbing
into the upper 50s to lower 60s by Sunday. Highs will range in the
mid 70s to around 80. -Blaes
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 100 AM Monday...
Onshore flow north of Imelda will transport tropical moisture
inland, leading to the development of widespread IFR ceilings across
the area overnight and into the morning hours as light rain spreads
from east to west. Once ceilings lower, they are expected to remain
low through the afternoon, with the potential for further lowering
to LIFR Monday evening/night.
Outlook: IFR to MVFR restrictions, with periods of rain will
continue into Tuesday. As Imelda turns east and moves out to sea
Tuesday night and into Wednesday, drier air will advect into the
area from the north, allowing a return of dry VFR conditions.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Blaes
NEAR TERM...RAH
SHORT TERM...RAH
LONG TERM...Blaes
AVIATION...CBL

NWS RAH Office Area Forecast Discussion