Scarborough Lake Number One, North Carolina Weather Forecast Discussion

420
FXUS62 KILM 301834
AFDILM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
234 PM EDT Tue Sep 30 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Hurricanes Humberto and Imelda will push farther offshore away
from the Carolinas this week. After some lingering rain today,
dry conditions are slated for the rest of the week as strong
Canadian high pressure ridges in from the north. Treacherous
marine and ocean conditions will persist through the remainder
of the work week with elevated waves pounding the coastline.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Latest surface analysis shows Hurricane Imelda about 690 miles
WSW of Bermuda, and Hurricane Humberto located about 300 miles
west of Bermuda. Streams of tropical moisture have continued to
pour into the area today, mostly from Imelda. Even so, we`ve
recorded less rain today than yesterday, and while scattered
tropical showers remain, today`s swath of moisture has mostly
manifested in thick cloud cover. Highs have only reached the mid
70s today, typical for a tropical airmass. There are some
subtle signs of airmass modification, as some coastal areas have
seen a ~0.10" decrease in the precipitable water values (PWAT).
This will be the theme in the forecast through Wednesday.
Strong high pressure currently in northern Ontario will push
eastward across the Hudson Bay and into Quebec by Wednesday.
While Hurricanes Imelda and Humberto push to the ENE, this high
pressure will extend its fingers into the Southeast and mid-
Atlantic. What remains is our first legitimate, beautiful dose
of fall air across the Carolinas. Lows tonight in the low-to-mid
60s, with dewpoints quickly falling into the upper 50s to near
60 before sunrise Wednesday morning. A few mid or high clouds
may remain from Imelda by daybreak, but skies will gradually
clear at the day wears on. Highs in the upper 70s to near 80.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Previous forecast remains on track for this period as sfc high
pressure ridges in from the north with weak flow aloft, allowing
for a dry forecast under mostly sunny/clear skies. With weak
CAA, temps will run a few degrees cooler than Wednesday, with
highs Thursday only in the mid 70s and lows Thursday night
ranging through the 50s.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Quiet and dry weather pattern continues through at least the
end of the week as sfc high pressure remains locked in place
over the NE and Mid Atlantic states. As the high slides offshore
Sunday into early next week, a more onshore flow component will
develop in the wind field, and associated slight increase in
moisture profiles support near climo PoPs (20-30%) in tandem
with a weak coastal trough. Seasonable temps continue...highs
in the mid 70s to lwr 80s.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Mostly MVFR to start the 18Z TAF period, with some IFR recently
recorded near KCRE where -RA has some lower cloud bases. Drier
air is very slowly starting to infiltrate the atmosphere, and
lower ceilings are starting to thin out a bit over eastern NC.
Guidance shows some good agreement in widespread VFR returning
this evening by around sunset, but I`m maintaining some
skepticism behind this. I backed up the trends a couple of
hours, generally late this evening before midnight. Rain chances
should cut off at around the same time. Clouds continue to thin
out, with only some FEW to SCT high clouds by the end of the
period. Gusty winds out of the NNE continue, potentially up to
20-22 kts.
Extended Outlook...Mostly VFR. May have some patchy fog over the
weekend, and rain chances at the coast will start to return by
Sunday.
&&
.MARINE...
Through Wednesday...Took down the Gale Warning, but immediately
replaced it with a Small Craft Advisory. Gusts above 30 kts
possible through this evening. May see a couple of gale force
gusts, but it was far too inconsistent to keep the previous
warning in place. Seas at 5-6 at the coast, with 8-9 waves 20 nm
from shore. Long period ESE swell continues at 14-16 seconds,
slowing down slightly to 11-12 seconds.
Wednesday Night through Sunday...Hazardous marine conditions
will continue for the duration of this week due to both
lingering swells from Imelda and Humberto and sfc high pressure
building in from the north. The Gale Warning has been downgraded
to a SCA as frequent gusts only in the 25-33 kt range are
expected, with seas still being the main hazard over the coastal
waters. Although current wave guidance is all running 1-2 ft
above buoy obs, the SCA has been carried out through Thursday
night due to high confidence in 6+ ft seas through then, but may
need to be extended in future forecast updates.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Other - Rip Currents: There is a high risk of rip currents for
all beaches today, with this high rip risk likely to continue
for east-facing beaches through the end of the week. Humberto
and Imelda swell will intertwine along with the addition of
large short period wind waves resulting from strong NE winds as
synoptic high pressure ridges across the area from the north.
The strong NE wind driven waves will continue through the end of
the work week while the 2 tropical cyclone distinctive swell
trains slowly subside. The end result will be the production of
high surf (breaking wave heights up to 6 ft) today through
Thursday across E and SE facing beaches, high risk for rip
currents and strong north to south longshore currents.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106-
     108-110.
     High Surf Advisory until midnight EDT Thursday night for
     NCZ106-108.
SC...High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ054-
     056.
     High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for SCZ054-056.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Friday for AMZ250-252-254-
 256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...IGB
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...IGB
MARINE...MAS/IGB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

NWS ILM Office Area Forecast Discussion