Schellville, California Weather Forecast Discussion

044
FXUS66 KMTR 192042
AFDMTR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
142 PM PDT Fri Sep 19 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 133 PM PDT Fri Sep 19 2025
- Showers with isolated thunderstorms today
- Cooler temperatures today, with a weekend warm up
- Weak offshore flow on Monday
- Rainfall chances increase again early next week
&&
.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 113 PM PDT Fri Sep 19 2025
(This evening through Saturday)
A lot to be seen on the satellite imagery this afternoon: morning
stratus has eroded back to the coastal waters, mid-upper level
comma-esque cloud field remains over the region with the Bay Area
under sunshine, and building cu field over the East Bay and
Central Coast terrain. Additionally, radar remains in precip mode
due to a few isolated showers sweeping through the northern North
Bay region.
While the chance for precip has decreased dramatically compared to
yesterday, lingering moisture and daytime heating may result in a
few popcorn showers over the East Bay and Central Coast terrain.
Highest likelihood would be interior San Benito/S Gabilan Range.
Once the sunset, convective potential really decreases. Bigger
impact tonight will be the marine layer and chance for patchy
dense fog along the coast and inland valleys.
Warmer and drier conditions are expected on Saturday. A few
afternoon cu will be possible, but not expecting any precip at
this time.
&&
.LONG TERM...
Issued at 138 PM PDT Fri Sep 19 2025
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
The longwave pattern shows the meandering cut-off low to the west
slowly drifting southward Sunday into Monday. The southward drift
is in response to a passing trough to the north. Resulting
weather for the region will be subtle warming trend continues with
max temps reaching the 60s and 70s coast and 80s to near 90
interior. Additional warming is expected on Monday.
Monday into Tuesday the upper trough continues into the N Plains
with high pressure building over the PacNW. At the surface, high
pressure will initially build over NorCal/OR/WA before shifting
eastward. The eastward shift will set the stage for some pushes
of offshore flow Monday/Tuesday. Long range pressure gradients
are showing moderate strength at best and most realized over the
North Bay and East Bay higher terrain.
The pesky upper low that drifted southward wants to return by
Tuesday into Wednesday and this time it brings some higher PWAT
air with it. Previous model runs had a more northern track of
this feature, but today`s runs keep the focus farther south and
into SoCal. Current forecast still holds the northern track with
rain, low chc thunderstorms, Tuesday and Wednesday. However, if
the trend continues the forecast will shift drier.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1038 AM PDT Fri Sep 19 2025
Mid level clouds have mostly moved north and northeast of our
forecast area, while lingering low clouds and fog /MVFR-IFR/
continue mainly along the coastline. Low clouds and fog /MVFR-IFR-
LIFR/ return tonight and Saturday morning.
Vicinity of SFO...VFR today and tonight with HREF indicating a
return of low clouds /MVFR-IFR/ by 12z Saturday. West wind near 5
to 10 knots except 15 to 20 knots this afternoon to mid evening.
SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals...IFR in low clouds through late morning
then MVFR-VFR during the afternoon. Low clouds /IFR/ return this
evening and overnight. Mainly west to northwest winds 5 to 12
knots.
&&
.MARINE...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 1027 AM PDT Fri Sep 19 2025
Winds are decreasing across the coastal waters with gentle to
moderate winds prevailing through the weekend. Isolated showers
are possible through early Friday before dry weather returns over
the weekend. Unsettled weather returns next Tuesday and Wednesday
with another round of isolated showers and thunderstorms possible.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM....MM
AVIATION...Canepa
MARINE...Canepa
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NWS MTR Office Area Forecast Discussion