Security, Colorado Weather Forecast Discussion

340
FXUS65 KPUB 062312
AFDPUB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
Issued by National Weather Service Denver CO
512 PM MDT Sat Sep 6 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
-  Showers and thunderstorms are likely early this evening,
   mainly over and near the higher terrain.
-  A couple strong to severe storms will be possible on our
   eastern plains on Sunday.
-  Daily chances for showers and thunderstorms are expected
   next week, mostly along the mountains, increasing in coverage
   and intensity towards the end of the week.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 140 PM MDT Sat Sep 6 2025
Currently..
As of Noon, temperatures are mostly in the 70s
across the plains, with 60s over the San Luis Valley. Early
morning low clouds are still struggling to clear on our far
eastern plains, but satellite imagery shows slow degradation
from west to east and clear skies over the mountain adjacent
plains. Cu is starting to form up over the high country, though
no showers or thunderstorms are present quite yet. A few cells
have popped up to our south and to our west, but no lightning
has been detected in our area or responsibility as of Noon.
Winds are mainly light and terrain driven at this time.
Dewpoints are in the 50s over much of the plains, with 40s over
the Pikes Peak region.
Rest of Today and Tonight..
Showers and thunderstorms will continue to be possible through
this afternoon and into the early evening hours over the high
country, with the highest concentration over the southern San
Juans and the southern San Luis Valley. Heavy rain will continue
to be the primary concern with storms through the rest of
today. Burn scars, urban centers, and areas typically prone to
flash flooding will need to be closely monitored going into the
evening hours, especially for locations that have already
received higher rainfall amounts over the past few days. Models
begin to diminish convection fairly quickly after sunset, with
most areas completely clear by around 9 or 10 pm at the latest.
Overnight lows are likely to be near normal tonight, with
temperatures bottoming out in the mid-50s on the plains, and 40s
across mountain valleys. Fog and low clouds will be possible on
our far eastern plains.
Tomorrow..
Ridging continues to build in from our west leading to height
rises and warming temperatures for our Sunday. Near normal
temperatures, with highs back into the mid and upper 80s are
likely over much of the plains, with a few low 90s possible.
Upper 70s can be expected over mountain valleys. As drier air
begins to spread in over the high country, showers and
thunderstorms should begin to decrease in both coverage and
intensity for our Sunday both over and near our mountains.
Further east on the plains though, a surface trough looks to
develop along and just east of I-25. High res model guidance
suggests that instability along and east of this boundary will
be increased, with forecast CAPE values upwards of 1500 J/Kg or
so tomorrow late afternoon and evening. Forecast bulk shear is
also 30-40kts over our eastern plains tomorrow. Though coverage
looks to be fairly isolated with storms struggling to fire over
our area in general, some CAMs are suggesting scattered coverage
as far south as El Paso and Pueblo County, with a few storms
keeping organized enough to make their way into a more favorable
environment for growth onto our eastern plains through the
evening hours. It seems that if storms do manage to fire or
survive their journey out onto our plains, they will have
chances of becoming strong to severe tomorrow. Damaging winds to
60 mph, hail up to 1 inch, and heavy rain may be possible in
one or two storms, with marginal but sub severe risks expected
for the majority of storms.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 319 AM MDT Sat Sep 6 2025
Sunday Night: The potential for strong to severe thunderstorms
last through around 10PM with the best axis of instability over
the far eastern plains with MUCAPE values reaching around 1500
J/kg with around 30 kts of deep shear. So overall, if a storm
starts up over the far eastern plains on Sunday night, 1 to 1.5
hail and 60 MPH wind gusts will be possible under the strongest
storms. Lingering non-severe thunderstorms will continue across
the region past midnight, but nothing severe should develop
after the aforementioned ending time above.
Monday and Tuesday: Isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms are expected to form over the mountains, mountain
valleys, and the I-25 corridor. The instability values are less
than 1000 J/kg, so the chance for severe thunderstorms are low,
but gusty winds, small hail, and torrential rain are possible
under the strongest thunderstorms on Monday and Tuesday. High
temperatures will be in the 80s to low 90s over the plains and
the 70s over the mountain valleys.
Wednesday through Friday:
A closed low begins to impact the region as it propagates from
the Pacific Northwest all the way down to the four-corners
region of the United States. Having a closed low develop like
this when it is still summer is a bit rare, but what it does do
is transport a lot of Pacific moisture towards Colorado.
Guidance is creating a prolonged period of rainfall over the
mountains, in particular, over the Continental Divide, from
Wednesday afternoon/evening through Friday evening. Instability
values arent very high, but having the instability present plus
having the southwesterly winds orthogonal to the mountains
heavy rain is expected which does bring flash flooding concerns,
especially once the soils become saturated. High temperatures
remain in the 80s to low 90s over the plains and the 70s over
the mountain valleys through Thursday, but by Friday
temperatures cool off to the 80s over the plains and the 60s to
low 70s over the mountain valleys.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 510 PM MDT Sat Sep 6 2025
VFR conditions are anticipated during the next 24 hours at all
3 taf sites, KPUB, KALS and KCOS. Winds will be light and
diurnally driven. There is a low end chance of some thunder/
outflow winds at KCOS and KALS at the very beginning of this TAF
forecast.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...WFO Pueblo
LONG TERM...SKELLY
AVIATION...HODANISH

NWS PUB Office Area Forecast Discussion