Seth, West Virginia Weather Forecast Discussion

771
FXUS61 KRLX 230935
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
535 AM EDT Tue Sep 23 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and thunderstorms continue through the work week as
multiple disturbances affect the area.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 120 AM Tuesday...
Today will be under the influence of the semi-stationary upper
low pressure system across the Great Lakes which will advect in
moisture courtesy of fairly zonal flow directing the moisture
flux behind the stratiform activity that is in place across our
area through the morning. Activity will come ahead of the
parent lows cold frontal boundary supporting unsettled weather
during this period.
During the late morning through most of the afternoon will
endure diurnal activity along with the potential for
thunderstorms. Thunderstorms should be your general run of the
mill type storms due to the lack of shear and instability
associated with abundant cloud coverage and activity that will
take up a lot of the instability.
By late afternoon and into the evening, a lull will occur due
to the lack of instability and moisture. By late evening, with
that moisture flux, more activity is expected to occur. This
will mean that activity will wane a bit by the late afternoon
until that moisture comes back into the region by late tonight
with isolated shower and storms possible up until the morning
when things become more active with showers and storms coming
in from the west.
There is the lack of shear but sufficient DCAPE along with
plenty of moisture in the lower and mid levels along with PWATs
slightly over 1.5 inches. This will promote excessive rainfall
and heavy downpours which could lead to some localized flooding
issues, but should not be anything major since we have been so
dry. Areas that are repeatedly hit could be at risk of having
more than just minor issues.
With the lack of shear severe thunderstorms have low probability
of developing today, therefore the main threat will be flash
flooding supported by soundings and their long skinny CAPE and
high moisture in the column.
Temperatures should reach about the 80 degree mark for the most
of the area which will be slightly above average for this time
of year. Along with high dewpoints in the low 70s will also aid
in the development of storms throughout the day.
Southwest flow will advect in more moisture and raise dewpoints
up slightly for the afternoon and evening staying elevated for
the overnight, however the aforementioned lull will likely take
place.
Overnight temperatures will stay elevated and slightly above
average due to cloud coverage and southwesterly flow. As stated
before, we will likely see a lull but cannot rule out isolated
shower or storms overnight into the morning.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1230 AM Tuesday...
An upper level low to our northwest will continue to push
moisture and a frontal boundary into the area for Wednesday and
Wednesday night. This will once again lead to numerous showers
and thunderstorms. The front could act as a focusing mechanism
for precipitation and with some areas already receiving
rainfall and more expected today, there is some concern for
flash flooding.
Models vary on where the cold front will stall Wednesday night
into Thursday, but our region seems to be a prime target.
The upper level low to our northwest will eventually evolve
into a deep trough and start pushing eastward. This will push
the cold front further eastward and east of our area Thursday
or Thursday night.
The upper trough will push through the area on Friday, allowing
for some showers behind the front.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 1230 AM Tuesday...
Models show that as the upper trough pulls away from the region,
it leaves behind a cut off low over the southeast United States.
Models vary on how far south of us the low is, with the Canadian
being furtherest north and possibly affecting southern portions
of our region. Some other models also leave some moisture over
our mountains, which could lead to some showers. This leads to a
lower confidence in the forecast for the weekend, especially
for the southern and eastern portions of the forecast area.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 600 AM Tuesday...
Isolated to scattered showers/storms are expected today with a
lull this evening going into Wednesday morning. Some brief
restrictions to VIS under heavier shower activity is expected
but should rebound quickly. CIGs may drop to MVFR during the
late morning and through the afternoon, however will lift and
scatter out slightly for the late afternoon and into the
evening. MVFR CIGs will come back to the area early Wednesday
morning.
Southwesterly flow will dominate and we could see gusty
conditons during the afternoon at all sites, but nothing higher
than 20kts, unless any site takes a direct hit from a storm.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing/intensity of restrictions from rain
may vary from the forecast.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
EDT 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    L    M    H    H    M    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    L    L    M    M    H    M    H    H    M    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    H    M    H    H    H    M    M    M    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    M    H
AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY...
Brief periods of IFR conditions are possible with heavier
showers or thunderstorms throughout the work week. IFR is also
possible at night with low stratus and/or fog.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/JZ
NEAR TERM...JZ
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...JZ

NWS RLX Office Area Forecast Discussion