Seth, West Virginia Weather Forecast Discussion

803
FXUS61 KRLX 290612
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
212 AM EDT Mon Sep 29 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Strong high pressure provides dry weather through much of the
week. A tropical system becomes a hurricane off the Florida
coast on Tuesday, then heads east further into the Atlantic.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 200 AM Monday...
Dense fog (evident in satellite imagery) has developed in the
river valleys during the overnight hours, and will persist until
mid morning before dissipating by late morning. Afterwards,
expect a mostly sunny, dry and unseasonably warm day, as a large
high pressure system builds across the Great Lakes, the Ohio Valley,
West Virginia and the northeast U.S., and dominates our weather.
High clouds, streaming northward from the outer bands of Tropical
Storm Imelda, will create filtered sunshine at times, especially
across eastern West Virginia. With light northeast winds, afternoon
high temperatures will climb into the mid to upper 80s for most
lowland areas. The mountains will be cooler, with highs ranging from
the mid 60s to mid 70s.
Tonight, the distribution of clouds will be the main story. Skies
will remain clear across the western portions of the forecast area,
allowing for efficient radiational cooling. Farther east, lingering
mid and upper level clouds will act as a blanket, keeping temperatures
slightly milder. Despite this difference, most locations will see
overnight lows dropping into the comfortable mid to upper 50s.
Tropical Update: The National Hurricane Center is tracking Tropical
Storm Imelda, currently located near the Bahamas. The storm is forecast
to move slowly north today before turning northeast into the
Atlantic, likely strengthening into a hurricane by early
Tuesday. Its only impact on our region will be the high level cloud
cover mentioned above.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 200 AM Monday...
As the projected trajectory of to be Hurricane Imelda takes a
northeast turn into the Atlantic, less influence is expected on
the local weather Tuesday and Wednesday.
NBM guidance suggests widespread dense fog across the entire area
Monday night into Tuesday morning. However, the aforementioned mid
to upper level clouds may interrupt radiational cooling further
east, suppressing fog formation over these areas.
For Tuesday night, dense river valley fog is once again expected,
though it may be less dense in the east where cloud cover will be
greater. Wednesday will feature dry weather and clear skies under
light north to northeast flow. Highs will only reach the mid 70s to
low 80s in the valleys, with 60s and low 70s in the mountains during
these days. It will be another cool night Wednesday, with lows in
the low 50s and even some mid 40s in the highest elevations.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 200 AM Monday...
By Wednesday night, the strong upper level ridge joins the
surface high pressure to provide very stable conditions through
the end of the week. Days will be filled with plenty of
sunshine, while nights feature the potential for river valley
fog.
Above normal highs (5 degrees) are expected Wednesday through
Friday. Dry weather conditions should extend into next weekend
with above seasonal temperatures.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 130 AM Monday...
Calm winds and mostly clear skies will promote ideal radiational
cooling overnight, leading to the formation of dense river valley
fog. This will result in widespread IFR, with periods of LIFR,
at most terminals. There are two key exceptions. First, BKW is
expected to remain VFR throughout the night due to its own
microclimate lacking sufficient moisture. Second, incoming
upper-level clouds across the eastern terminals may limit
surface cooling, which could prevent fog from becoming as dense
in those locations.
All areas experiencing fog will see slow improvement on Monday
morning, with conditions gradually lifting to MVFR or low-end
VFR by late morning.
Widespread VFR conditions are anticipated courtesy of a strong
surface high pressure.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to high with fog overnight into
Monday morning, otherwise high.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and intensity of restrictions
overnight with fog may vary from the forecast, along with the
timing of improving conditions on Monday morning.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE                              MON 09/29/25
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    L    L    M    M    M    M    L    M    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    M    M    M    L    M    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    M    M    M    M    L    L    M    H    H    H
AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...
IFR is possible with river valley fog each morning through Friday.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...ARJ

NWS RLX Office Area Forecast Discussion