Shalimar, Florida Weather Forecast Discussion

566
FXUS64 KMOB 181233
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
733 AM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025
...New Aviation...
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1244 AM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025
Now through Tuesday...
A closed upper low over the East Coast opens, leaving a weakening
upper trough centered along the East Coast into the weekend. This
will keep the Southeast under dry northeasterly upper flow into the
weekend. A weak surface boundary moves south over the Southeast
THursday into Thursday night, but with a dry airmass over the
region, any rain chances are expected to be north of the forecast
area. Shortwave energy moving east of the Mississippi River digs an
upper trough over the river through the weekend, with the trough
shifting east to over the Eastern Conus. A surface ridge develops
over the Appalachians, then builds southwest through the rest of the
week into the weekend, bringing east to southeast low level flow to
the Southeast, and Gulf and Atlantic moisture inland over the
region. The forecast area will see an increasing chance of showers
and thunderstorms in the coming week with the increase in moisture
and the approaching upper trough.
A weak ridge building over the Southeast the rest of the week will
bring high temperatures rising to well above seasonal norms through
the forecast, with around 90s expected over most of the forecast
area Wednesday, then rising to the low to mid 90s by Saturday. The
advancing upper trough will drop high temperatures back into the
upper 80s to around 90 by Monday. More seasonal low temperatures in
the mod 60s to near 70 Wednesday night to the upper 60s to low 70s
for the rest of the forecast.
Weak, diurnally driven flow and decreasing tidal cycle will keep the
risk of Rip Currents Low through the weekend into the coming week.
/16
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 733 AM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025
VFR conditions will persist through the forecast with a light and
variable wind becoming southerly along the coast during the
afternoon. BB-8
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1244 AM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025
No impacts expected other than locally higher winds and seas
possible near thunderstorms.
/16
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      92  68  93  69  94  70  91  68 /   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Pensacola   90  72  92  73  92  73  89  72 /   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Destin      88  73  89  73  89  73  88  72 /   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  10
Evergreen   95  67  95  65  96  66  93  66 /  10   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Waynesboro  92  67  93  67  94  67  93  66 /   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Camden      93  68  93  67  94  68  92  67 /  10   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Crestview   93  66  94  66  94  67  92  66 /  10  10   0   0   0   0   0   0
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
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NWS MOB Office Area Forecast Discussion