Sheffield, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

011
FXUS64 KMAF 231852
AFDMAF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
152 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 147 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
- A cold front leads to strong winds within the Guadalupe and
  Delaware Mountains, as well as Carlsbad Caverns National Park
  tonight into Wednesday evening.
- A couple of strong to severe storms will be possible late this
  evening and tonight over the eastern Permian Basin. The main
  threats with the strongest strongest storms will be damaging
  winds, locally heavy rainfall, and isolated large hail.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Wednesday night)
Issued at 147 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
Changes are taking shape in the upper levels! The ridge responsible
for recent record warmth is giving way to a trough swinging over the
Plains. The upper low sends a cold front down into the our region
tonight. As the cold front makes its way through the area, it will
provide strong winds for those on our western fringes, increased
rain chances, and cooler conditions. A High Wind Warning goes into
effect tonight through Wednesday evening for the Guadalupe Pass,
Delaware Mts, and Carlsbad Caverns NP, where sustained winds could
occasionally get up to 35-45 mph. Lift associated with both the
trough and the front promotes shower/storm development this evening
through Wednesday evening. A few showers are currently percolating
in the vicinity of the Davis Mountains. Rain chances this evening
and through the night range from 20-70%, with best (40-70%) chances
over most of the Permian Basin. Hi-res models hint at outflow from
storms originally generated by a prefrontal dry line earlier in the
day meeting up with the approaching front, kick starting a new line
of storm development. Given ample instability and increasing shear
ahead of the front, a couple of storms may become strong to severe
over the eastern Permian Basin. The main threats with the strongest
storms will be damaging winds, locally heavy rainfall resulting in
flash flooding, and isolated large hail. Otherwise, temperatures
tonight are forecast to mainly settle into the 60s.
Wednesday, the cold front continues its march across our region,
heading southeastward. Lift associated with the front keeps rain
chances in the forecast Wednesday through the evening hours. Rain
chances Wednesday afternoon range between 20-40% across the region,
with 50-60% PoPs along our eastern fringes. In stark comparison to
today and Monday, highs Wednesday warm into the mid 70s to low 80s
for almost everyone except those along the Rio Grande, where
temperatures reach into the 90s. Wednesday evening, rain chances
continue to shift southward, ranging between 20-40%. Overnight
temperatures are expected to cool into the 50s within the higher
terrain and our northern counties. Elsewhere, Wednesday night lows
dip into the low 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 147 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
The lingering affects of Wednesday`s cold front will still be felt
into Thursday as surface high pressure remains overhead.
Temperatures will climb back closer to normal with highs mostly in
the low to mid 80s by afternoon. Weak mid level ridging will build
across the region late this week helping to warm temperatures back
above normal. Upslope flow across the higher terrain will allow for
the development of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
each afternoon and evening. The majority of this activity will
remain west of the Pecos River.
By this weekend, a large-scale mid level trough will position itself
over the Desert SW. Increased southwesterly flow aloft and well-
timed disturbances will lead to increasing chances for showers and
storms, especially across the higher terrain. Our region will be on
the eastern edge of this surge of moisture with the most widespread
convective activity in El Paso`s area. Saying that, it`s not out of
the question to see some heavy rainfall and flash flooding for
locations from the Guadalupe Mountains south to the Big Bend.
Temperatures, even with the added moisture look to remain above
normal.
This trough lifts into the Plains early next week with zonal mid
level flow residing. Expect drier conditions to return with
temperatures near to slightly above normal.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1226 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
VFR conditions prevail at most sites this afternoon. However, a
cold front arriving tonight and into Wednesday will bring breezy
conditions and scattered storms to the region. For now, all sites
have PROB30s through the overnight hours. Storms may lead to
gusty and erratic winds.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               66  79  58  83 /  70  40  10  10
Carlsbad                 64  76  60  83 /  40  20  10  10
Dryden                   73  88  68  87 /  10  40  40  20
Fort Stockton            68  79  62  84 /  20  40  20  20
Guadalupe Pass           59  69  57  76 /  30  20  10  20
Hobbs                    61  77  55  82 /  60  20  10  10
Marfa                    62  76  57  78 /  10  40  30  30
Midland Intl Airport     66  79  60  84 /  50  30  10  10
Odessa                   66  78  60  82 /  50  30  10  10
Wink                     66  79  60  83 /  30  40  10  10
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Wind Warning from 2 AM CDT /1 AM MDT/ to 10 PM CDT /9 PM
     MDT/ Wednesday for Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains.
NM...High Wind Warning from 1 AM to 9 PM MDT Wednesday for Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...95
LONG TERM....29
AVIATION...95

NWS MAF Office Area Forecast Discussion