Shell Knob, Missouri Weather Forecast Discussion

396
FXUS63 KSGF 060717
AFDSGF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
217 AM CDT Sat Sep 6 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Another stretch of dry weather appears likely this weekend
  through next week.
- Temperatures will gradually increase this weekend through
  next week. High temperatures will approach 90 degrees by
  midweek.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 117 AM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025
Light to locally moderate showers were passing through southern
Missouri and southeast Kansas early this morning. Some cool air
overrunning residual surface moisture may result in some patchy
fog across central and west-central Missouri, as supported by
00Z HREF probabilities of visibility less than 1 SM in the
50-70% range. Any fog that does form should lift by mid-morning
with surface heating. Otherwise, today will be marked by
clearing skies and cool temperatures in the mid to upper 70s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 117 AM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025
The two key takeaways for the long-term forecast will be
gradually warming temperatures and a stretch of dry weather.
A glance at ensemble situational awareness tables and the
Extreme Forecast Index reveals little in the way of a
particularly noteworthy parameter space across the region next
week, suggesting an overall quiet pattern. Ensemble clusters
depict an upper-level trough across the eastern CONUS on
Saturday breaking down early next week. As it does so, there is
some indication a shortwave impulse transits the Plains Monday
into Tuesday, which may provide energy for shower and
thunderstorm development. Most ensemble members keep this
activity just west of our southeastern Kansas counties, however,
leaving our area dry. Ensemble trends will be monitored in the
coming days for any eastward tendencies.
Beyond Tuesday, ensembles are generally in good agreement in
developing a ridge across the central CONUS through the end of
the week. Not only will this keep our area dry, it will also
allow for steadily increasing temperatures. NBM percentiles
support highs near 90 degrees Wednesday into the weekend. For
reference, climatological average high temperatures for this
time of year are in the 80 to 84 degree range. These warm
temperatures combined with the lack of meaningful rainfall may
exacerbate drought expansion across the region.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1146 PM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025
Light to locally moderate showers will move through southern
Missouri at the start of the TAF period. Most rain will be light
enough for VFR conditions to prevail, but periods of moderate
rain may briefly drop visibilities to MVFR levels. Rain looks to
move south of the terminals after 12Z. Beyond that, clearing
skies and light winds will prevail.
There is some potential for fog (50% chances) across central and
west-central Missouri by early morning as cool air overruns a
moist surface; however, the best signal currently looks to be
north of the TAF sites, so no mention of fog was included in the
initial 06Z TAFs issuances, but amendments may be needed should
fog indeed develop.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Didio
LONG TERM...Didio
AVIATION...Didio

NWS SGF Office Area Forecast Discussion