Shep, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

804
FXUS64 KSJT 131111
AFDSJT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
611 AM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Low to Medium chance (20-40%) of showers and storms on Sunday
  along and west of a Throckmorton to Sonora line.
- Otherwise, conditions will continue to be dry and warm through
  the next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 151 AM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025
Showers and storms forming in advance of a trough moving across NM
and the TX Panhandle and Permian Basin may eventually approach
our extreme western counties by late tonight. Otherwise, we should
see warm and dry weather again today. High temperatures today will
be similar to yesterday (upper 80s to low 90s), if not 1 or 2
degrees lower due to very slight weakening of the 850 mb thermal
ridge. High pressure to the east and low pressure associated with
the aforementioned trough will result in continued south to
southeasterly low level/surface winds, with some 15-20 mph gusts
late this morning and afternoon. Expect low tonight once again in
the mid 60s to low 70s.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 1247 AM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025
The upper level ridge will continue to weaken and push off to the
east as a trough moves into the central U.S. on Sunday. The trough
will move northeast, clipping north Texas, and will provide some
upper level support for showers and storms. The best chance for
rain will be to our west/northwest, but we will have the potential
for some isolated to scattered activity throughout the day
Sunday. The trough will move off to the northeast late Sunday,
leaving weak high pressure over the area for next week. Rain
chances will be low and temperatures will sit near to slightly
above normal. Another trough is expected to approach the area on
Thursday. Right now, PoPs remain on the low side for Thursday, but
this is something we`ll be watching.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 611 AM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025
Patchy MVFR CIGs will continue to develop across the I-10
corridor through 16Z, likely impacting KSOA and KJCT, with a low
chance (20%) of reaching KSJT and KBBD. Otherwise, VFR is
expected through 12Z Sun. S to SSE winds of 3-7 KT will continue
through 12Z Sun, except during 15Z today to 01Z Sun when wind
speeds will increase to 8-11 KT with gusts of 15-18 KT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     93  70  92  70 /   0   0  20  10
San Angelo  91  69  89  67 /   0   0  20  10
Junction    91  66  91  65 /   0   0   0   0
Brownwood   92  67  91  67 /   0   0   0   0
Sweetwater  93  70  90  69 /   0  10  40  10
Ozona       88  70  86  67 /   0  10  30   0
Brady       90  67  89  67 /   0   0   0   0
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SJH
LONG TERM....AP
AVIATION...SJH

NWS SJT Office Area Forecast Discussion