Sherwin, Kansas Weather Forecast Discussion

115
FXUS63 KSGF 081043
AFDSGF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
543 AM CDT Mon Sep 8 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Mostly dry weather continues through at least this week.
  Extended model guidance suggests below-average precipitation
  may continue well into the month of September.
- There is high confidence that above-average temperatures will
  return by the middle of the week.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 102 AM CDT Mon Sep 8 2025
Mesoanalysis reveals the 850 mb high is sitting directly
overhead today which will largely keep our weather quiet. A
shortwave impulse will translate through the Plains this
afternoon and initiate convection across portions of Nebraska
and Kansas. This activity may approach the western fringes of
our CWA this evening into Tuesday morning, but a very dry
airmass will prevent it from making it very far into the Ozarks.
The relative best chances to see any rain at all will generally
be along and west of the I-49 corridor where dew points are
modestly higher near 50 degrees. The latest HREF probabilities
of locations measuring at least 0.10" of rainfall that way are
in the 20-40% range. Probabilities of receiving a quarter inch
are 30% or less.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 102 AM CDT Mon Sep 8 2025
Upper-level ridging is progged to develop across the central
CONUS during the middle to end of the week which will largely
keep the Missouri Ozarks in a dry and warm pattern. Forecasted
850 mb temperatures in the 20 to 22 C range are above the 90th
percentile of climatology and typically correlate to surface
temperatures near 90 F. Indeed, NBM data show small forecast
temperature spreads through the end of the week with highs in
the upper 80s to mid 90s. For reference, climatological average
high temperatures for this time of year are in the 80 to 84
degree range. These warm temperatures combined with the lack of
meaningful rainfall may exacerbate drought expansion across the
region. Furthermore, extended ECMWF and GEFS runs both suggest
below-average precipitation anomalies continuing well into the
month of September.
Ensemble solutions begin to diverge more significantly by the
weekend. A majority of grand ensemble members (70%) keep the
aforementioned ridge overhead, keeping rain chances to a
minimum, while the other 30% favor a more progressive shortwave
moving into the region, which would at least open the door for
some rain chances. For now, NBM PoPs in our area remain low
through the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 540 AM CDT Mon Sep 8 2025
VFR conditions are likely through the TAF period with a few high
clouds and winds prevailing out of the south-southeast generally
less than 12 kt.
There is a low chance (less than 30%) for a shower or two at the
JLN terminal after 00Z this evening; however, confidence in this
occurence--and particularly in flight category impacts--was too
low to include any mention in the current TAFs.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Didio
LONG TERM...Didio
AVIATION...Didio

NWS SGF Office Area Forecast Discussion