Smoke Signal, Arizona Weather Forecast Discussion

107
FXUS65 KFGZ 061644
AFDFGZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
944 AM MST Sat Sep 6 2025
.SYNOPSIS...Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected this
afternoon and evening. Dry air starts to move in on Sunday with only
isolated storms expected. Fall-like weather is expected to set in
mid to late next week with low chances for showers and thunderstorms
returning.
&&
.DISCUSSION...A mesoscale complex is pushing southward through
Nevada/NW Arizona early this morning, and similar to yesterday
morning, this area of storms will push to the south/southeast
through the early morning. These storms contain lots of lightning
and heavy rainfall along with some gusts to 40mph or so. While the
bulk of this will remain to the west of our area, we could see some
of the gusty winds as the outflow pushes away from the storms. As we
saw with the one yesterday morning, we will again have debris clouds
across portions of the region and this will likely limit convective
development. Additionally, we continue to see some pop up showers
across eastern portions of the forecast area early this morning,
However, these cells are producing only very light rainfall amounts
and present no issues.
One more day of relatively decent moisture will lead to isolated to
scattered activity through this afternoon and evening. Models are
not resolving this mornings convection very well and continue to
struggle with our convective pattern. With moisture remaining across
the region, still anticipate that we will see storms developing
across the higher terrain and then moving down into the lower
elevations. If we can break out of the clouds a bit more, then the
potential for more storm coverage exists. Storms will follow more of
the typical diurnal trend with storms dissipating as we head past
sunset.
A trough will push down from the Pacific Northwest this weekend and
then move inland on Monday. This trough will bring a more westerly
flow aloft and this will dry out the atmosphere and end the active
pattern we have had recently. Starting Sunday we will see a marked
downturn in convection with only some isolated showers and storms,
mainly across the higher terrain, before the dry air wins out and we
see conditions become dry for Monday. As we head into midweek, some
moisture may start to push into eastern areas with some isolated
storms possible. With less moisture we will see less clouds and
temperatures should warm slightly, to right around average through
midweek.
Models show the trough digging further south through the week but
differ on just when the trough will make its push to the east.
Depending on just where the trough resides will dictate how much
moisture we can advect back into the region later this week. One
thing they all seem to agree on is that temperatures are likely to
cool toward weeks end with an increase in winds.
&&
.AVIATION...Saturday 06/18Z through Sunday 07/18Z...Mainly VFR
conditions. Isolated to scattered SHRA/TSRA from 18Z-03Z.
Brief/localized MVFR and gusty/erratic winds 25-35 kts in and near
SHRA/TSRA. Outside of storms, expect SW-W winds 5-15 kts, gusting
to 20kts.
OUTLOOK...Sunday 07/18Z through Tuesday 09/18Z...Mainly VFR
conditions. Isolated SHRA/TSRA over higher terrain between
18Z-02Z Sunday. No SHRA/TSRA expected area-wide on Monday as drier
air moves in. Brief/localized MVFR and gusty/erratic winds 25-35
kts in and near SHRA/TSRA. Outside of storms, expect daytime SW-W
winds 5-15 kts, becoming light and variable or terrain driven
overnight.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Today and Sunday...Scattered showers and
thunderstorms expected today, becoming more isolated and mainly
along the higher terrain on Sunday as drier air moves into the
region. Main hazards will be heavy rainfall, frequent lightning, and
gusty/erratic winds. Outside of storms, expect westerly winds at 10-
20 mph each day.
Monday through Wednesday...Drier conditions expected through much
of the coming week with isolated activity across the higher
terrain on Tuesday and Wednesday. South to west winds at 10-20 mph
Monday and Tuesday, increasing to 15-25 mph on Wednesday. Minimum
RH values range from 15-30% each day.
&&
.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...Meola
AVIATION...Bernhart
FIRE WEATHER...Meola
For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff

NWS FGZ Office Area Forecast Discussion