Smyrna, North Carolina Weather Forecast Discussion

657
FXUS62 KMHX 282048
AFDMHX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
448 PM EDT Sun Sep 28 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Active pattern through mid week with a stalled front and
incoming tropical moisture leading to a wet few days ahead of
potential impacts from offshore Hurricane Humberto and Tropical
Storm Imelda. Also expecting a prolonged period of strong
northeasterly winds as high pressure looks to build in from the
north by about mid week with the tropical systems passing well
offshore.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 330 PM Sun...Showers will be scattered about tonight,
though no flooding is expected due to the spotty nature of the
rain. Fog should be limited due to a northeasterly breeze
persisting tonight in the 5+ mph range. Very muggy for late Sep
with lows in the upper 60s to low 70s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
As of 330 PM Sun...Additional scattered showers expected again
as tropical moisture cont to stream into the Eastern Seaboard.
Precip will be sct enough to preclude any flooding, with amounts
generally only a half inch or less. Little instability is
present so not much in the way of thunder expected with probs
less than 15%. With the widespread clouds around, daytime temps
held down in the mid/upper 70s for most.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 1620 Sunday...
Key Messages:
- NHC`s official forecast for TS Imelda continues to be
   promising for ENC; turning E well before it reaches the
   Coastal Carolinas.
- TS Imelda and distant Hurricane Humberto are expected to
   bring coastal impacts to the area mid to late week.
Two tropical cyclones will impact the region this coming week.
Hurricane Humberto is expected to remain well offshore, though
long period swell energy from this system will begin to impact
the waters Monday, peaking Tuesday and Wednesday. NHC`s latest
official forecast has Tropical Storm Imelda strengthening as it
moves Nward well offshore of the East Coast of FL tomorrow and
reaching hurricane strength by Tuesday morning while it begins
its Eward turn well before reaching the FL/GA border latitude
and continuing an Eward motion while gradually weakening through
midweek.
Tropical moisture is still expected to spread over ECONUS from
the S MON night and TUE, keeping light rain in the forecast as
the moisture slides over the incoming high, and swell will be
increasing. With the further S/Eward trends, rain chances and
accumulation forecasts continue to step down towards more normal
levels typical of late summer- time, high pressure patterns
midweek onward as the ridge takes control. The main concerns
for next week are becoming more focused on periods of strong
NEerly gradient winds due to the incoming high pressure. Coastal
impacts are coming into clearer focus due to the incoming
swell, (see TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING section below for more
details).
&&
.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through Mon/...
As of 2 PM Sun...Widely sct showers along the coast to push
inland through the evening, and have left in vcsh mention as a
result. Main concern for tonight is a return to IFR/LIFR
conditions as widespread low cigs make a return after midnight.
Limited fog threat as a nerly breeze will remain aoa 5 mph. The
low cigs will be quite slow to lift once again on Mon.
LONG TERM /Monday night through Thursday/...
As of 230 AM Sun...
Key Messages
- Unsettled pattern will bring unfavorable flying conditions to
   ENC through mid week.
Periods of sub-VFR conditions expected through the period, with
scattered to numerous showers, best chances Monday night into
Tuesday. Widespread IFR/MVFR cigs will be possible Monday
night, possibly lingering into Tue. TS Imelda is forecast to
remain well off the coast as it lift N and then E through mid
week. While the center of the storm is currently expected to
remain south and offshore, the gradient between this system and
the high pressure to the north could bring breezy NE winds
Wednesday and Thursday.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Mon/...
As of 330 PM Sun...Winds will remain nerly at 10-15 kts through
early Mon. Gradient inc further as high pres from the north
interacts with the gradient from TS Imelda well to the south,
with speeds of 15-20 kt in the afternoon. Seas build ahead of
the gradient, with SCA seas expected by Mon morning. Therefore
SCA has been issued starting on Tue for the coastal waters.
LONG TERM /Monday night through Thursday/...
As of 1600 Sunday...
Key Message
- Dangerous marine conditions expected through the period, with
   swell from two tropical cyclones impacting the waters as well
   as strong NEerly gradient winds expected through much of the
   work-week.
 - Gale watches have been issued for all coastal waters and the
   Pamlico Sound.
 --- Additional Gale headlines for smaller sounds and inland
  rivers remain possible.
Two tropical cyclones will impact the waters this coming week.
Hurricane Humberto is expected to remain well offshore, though
long period swell energy from this system will peak Tuesday and
Wednesday. Then, TS Imelda is forecast to approach the SECONUS
coast and then take a turn sharply to the E through midweek, but
will still send strong swell Nward into our waters. Gradient
wind between high pres to the north and the tropical systems
well offshore will bring a long duration of gales to the coastal
waters and sounds/rivers beginning Tuesday lasting through
Thursday. Building seas (10-15 ft) by Tuesday and expected to
remain elevated, potentially increasing further into late- week.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 1500 Sunday...Long period swell from distant Humberto is
forecast to begin arriving at ENC beaches as early as late
tonight/early Monday morning, then peak Tuesday and Wednesday. Swell
impacts are expected to last much of the upcoming week (in combo
with Imelda), which include dangerous rip currents, large breaking
waves, and the potential for ocean overwash, coastal flooding and
wave runup impacts. As well as the swell impacting the coast, a
period of strong NEerly/onshore winds associated with a cold front
and building high pressure in its wake may heighten impacts along
the coast, while also increasing the risk for water level rises on
the inside mid to late week. We may also see low water level
concerns for Nern sounds late week.
High surf advisories have been put in place from Cape Lookout
northward through the entirety of OBX to Duck starting Monday
morning through much of the work week though they potentially
could last into next weekend.
We have also begun the coastal flooding products with the first
issuance of coastal flood watches for the same locations for the
oceanside concerns, Cape Lookout northward through the entirety of
OBX to Duck, though their start times are slightly delayed in
conjunction with the arrival times for the strongest of the swell
from Humberto.
Coastal flood watches have also been issued for soundside
flooding concerns for water level rises due to the strengthening
NEerly winds that are expected Tuesday into late-week in
response to the gradient between the offshore front, tropical
systems, and the inland high pressure building in from the N.
These watches are in place for areas along the Southern Pamlico
Sound and Neuse and Pamlico Rivers.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Coastal Flood Watch from Tuesday morning through Friday
     morning for NCZ080-094-194.
     High Surf Advisory from 5 PM Monday to 8 AM EDT Saturday for
     NCZ196-203>205.
     Coastal Flood Watch from Tuesday morning through Saturday
     morning for NCZ196-203>205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM Monday to 11 AM EDT Tuesday for
     AMZ135.
     Gale Watch from Tuesday morning through Thursday evening for
     AMZ135-152-154.
     Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Monday to 2 PM EDT Tuesday for
     AMZ150.
     Gale Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Thursday evening for
     AMZ150.
     Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Monday to 11 AM EDT Tuesday for
     AMZ152-154.
     Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Monday to 8 AM EDT Tuesday for
     AMZ156-158.
     Gale Watch from Tuesday morning through Thursday evening for
     AMZ156-158.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...TL
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...CQD/CEB
AVIATION...CQD/TL
MARINE...CQD/TL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX

NWS MHX Office Area Forecast Discussion