South Plains, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

742
FXUS64 KLUB 161715
AFDLUB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1215 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1213 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025
- Chances for showers and thunderstorms increase late Wednesday
   and continue each day through the weekend.
- Temperatures remain near normal for this time of year but with
   a warming trend this weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 1213 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025
Once again today there is little to focus diurnally-driven
convection, but reaching convective temperatures in some locations
may be enough to generate some small-scale isolated
showers/thunderstorms but with little chance at redevelopment and
organization. Thus, there is little chance for precipitation after
00Z and will keep mention out at this time. Focus then shifts to
Wednesday and precipitation chances moving into northern part of the
forecast area. This is in response to the northern end of an upper
level ridge located over the forecast area retreating southward and
the southern end of an upper trough located over the northern
Rockies this afternoon rotating eastward over the High Plains. This
is line with previous forecasts and little need to make significant
changes to the forecast.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 1213 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025
The upper trough mentioned above will slowly move eastward across
the Great Plains through Friday. Rain chances remain focused on the
northern parts of the forecast area through the daytime hours
Thursday before a weak cold front moves into the area and possibly
shifts the focus southward. Will keep PoPs in the chance category
through the period in line with previous forecast adjustments but
now with support from the NBM. Temperatures then warm and precip
chances decrease (although are not eliminated) through the weekend
and into Monday with highs mostly in the 90s as upper level ridging
northward over the intermountain West. This would set up things for
precipitation in a diurnally-driven, convective temperature set up
in the afternoons hours or possibly as a northwest flow high-terrain
evening to overnight regime.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1213 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025
VFR next 24 hours. There is a slim chance for an isolated TSTM or
two across West Texas through dusk, but it will not be included in
any of the TAFs due to the limits in spatiotemporal coverage.
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...09

NWS LUB Office Area Forecast Discussion