Southland, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

215
FXUS64 KLUB 081801
AFDLUB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
101 PM CDT Mon Sep 8 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 100 PM CDT Mon Sep 8 2025
- A few thunderstorms will be possible across the far
   southeastern Texas Panhandle and Rolling Plains this evening
   into tonight.
- Dry and hot weather is forecast Tuesday through Friday.
- Low storm chances return this upcoming weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 100 PM CDT Mon Sep 8 2025
Stratus is beginning to clear on the Caprock while spreading
eastward into the Rolling Plains. This will help to keep temps
temporarily cool, but highs should still reach into the mid/upper
80s once skies clear. Convection will be possible across portions of
the Texas Panhandle late this afternoon into the late evening along
a surface boundary. Any convection that develops should remain north
of the FA where surface convergence and lift from an upper shortwave
trough is best. Upper ridging will begin to move over the region
Tuesday and will help increase highs into the low/mid 90s area wide.
An upper shortwave is progged to push across the upper ridge late
early to mid Tuesday afternoon which could bring convection into at
least our northern and western zones. Most synoptic models remain
dry region wide due to subsidence, but most CAMs are in agreement
with isolated to scattered storms developing across northeastern New
Mexico and the Texas Panhandle after 18Z Tuesday. This seems to be
plausible given ample surface moisture and lift from the upper
shortwave coupled with surface convergence along a surface trough. A
slight chance of precip has been added to the forecast from 18Z
Tuesday through 06Z Wednesday.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 100 PM CDT Mon Sep 8 2025
The forecast remains warm with no mentionable precip chances
Wednesday through Friday. The axis of the upper ridge will settle
overhead while transitioning to a closed high, which also settles
over the FA. Despite the upper high/ridge, thicknesses will remain
fairly steady-state as will daily afternoon highs. A closed upper
low will develop across much of the West Coast by the end of the
week. This upper low will begin to kick the upper high eastward
through the weekend. Some convection may be possible, especially
across our western zones, as upper flow becomes more southwesterly
and monsoonal moisture is drawn close to the region.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 100 PM CDT Mon Sep 8 2025
VFR conditions will generally prevail through the next 24 hours.
There is an outside chance for low stratus clouds early
Tuesday morning at Lubbock, Childress and Plainview.
Stanley
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...51
LONG TERM....51
AVIATION...26/Stanley

NWS LUB Office Area Forecast Discussion