Stuart Place, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

869
FXUS64 KBRO 051717
AFDBRO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1217 PM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025
...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1213 PM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025
- Hot and rain-free conditions with Moderate (level 2 of 4) to
   Major (level 3 of 4) Heat Risk continues through Saturday.
- Widespread wet and unsettled weather pattern returns for the
   weekend and early next week.
- Expected rainfall totals remain highly uncertain, however WPC
   continues to maintain a marginal risk (level 1 of 4) for
   Excessive Rainfall Sunday through Sunday night.
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1213 PM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025
The main story for the forecast period continues to be the elevated
chances for rain starting tomorrow and continuing through the early
part of next week. Current model guidance does show that there is a
large plume of moisture that will make its way into Deep South Texas
and the Rio Grande Valley. This will allow for PWATs to be around 2
inches starting this weekend and continuing through the early part
of the week. Meanwhile, a frontal boundary is expected to stall out
to the north of the region. With southeasterly to easterly flow on
the surface, there will be plenty of low-level moisture in the
region to foster the development of showers and thunderstorms over
the region. There are several factors to this rainfall event that
bring a lot of uncertainty to the forecast. Notably, how far south
the front comes down will be a major factor as the further south the
front comes down the greater chances for rain would be for the
region. However, if the front stays further north, the chances for
rain could drop for the area. While the NBM 50th percentile
continues to suggest possible rainfall totals of 1.5 to 3 inches or
greater by Wednesday morning. While the NBM is a blend of different
forecasting models, there are some models that sit on the extremes
of this rainfall event adding in a lot of uncertainty to how much
rainfall could occur. Given the amount of uncertainty in the
forecast, it is hard to say which locations are likely to be
impacted the most at this time. With so much uncertainty in the
forecast, a blend of the NBM, GFS, and ECMWF were used to lower PoPs
and to reduce some of the bias that is in the NBM blends. Until we
can get more CAMs involved in the model blends, there will still be
a lot of uncertainty in the forecast. Any sort of persistent rain
over any area could lead to some localized flooding especially for
places in low-lying areas and other flood prone regions. It should
also be noted that given the high amount of moisture in the
environment, it is possible for some of these showers and
thunderstorms to produce a high amount of rainfall in an area in a
very short time, that could also lead to some localized flooding as
well. With all these factors combined, WPC maintains a marginal risk
(level 1 of 4) for excessive rainfall for Deep South Texas and the
Rio Grande Valley.
As for the temperatures in the forecast period, the highs for today
and tomorrow are expected to mostly be in the triple digits for the
region with areas along the coast could be in the upper 90s.
However, moving into the weekend and the rest of the forecast
period, temperatures are expected to decrease a bit due to the cloud
coverage over the area. Limiting the highs to mid to upper 90s for
the area. Low temperatures are expected to mostly remain in the 70s
for the forecast period as well.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1213 PM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025
VFR conditions are expected to persist through the TAF cycle at
all TAF sites through the TAF period. Southeasterly winds could be
a bit gusty around 20 knots this afternoon, those gusts should
weaken by this evening.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1213 PM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025
Mostly favorable marine conditions are expected for the forecast
period with light to moderate southeasterly to easterly winds and
low to moderate seas. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to be
more likely this weekend and through the early part of next week. A
frontal boundary is expected to stall out towards the north of the
Lower Texas Coast. Depending on how far north the front stalls out,
will impact the chances for rain.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             80  95  79  92 /  20  30  60  80
HARLINGEN               77  97  76  94 /  20  30  40  80
MCALLEN                 80 101  79  97 /   0  30  40  70
RIO GRANDE CITY         79 102  77  97 /   0  20  40  70
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      83  90  82  88 /  40  30  70  80
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     80  94  78  91 /  20  30  60  80
&&
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...64-Katz
LONG TERM....64-Katz
AVIATION...64-Katz

NWS BRO Office Area Forecast Discussion