Sugargrove, Pennsylvania Weather Forecast Discussion

227
FXUS61 KCTP 130535
AFDCTP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
135 AM EDT Sat Sep 13 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A rain-free stretch with unseasonably warm temperatures will
continue across central Pennsylvania through the last week of
astronomical summer.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
KCCX really picking up the updrafts/thermals on top of the
ridges, likely thanks to the bugs floating around and being
lifted. The cumulus will die away as we lose the sun. Temps
should be a few degs milder overnight than last night and the
nights before. So, there will probably be a little less valley
fog, too. However, there is some moisture hanging in the east
(where the most cu are at 18Z), and some model solutions make
fog and/or low clouds east of the Susq R. Will just hint at that
possibility with higher cloud cover and mentions of patchy fog.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
Big bubble, no trouble. High pressure will dominate for many
days. Sunrise Sat should mix away any AM fog or low- ish clouds.
An upper level spin should yield clouds, but no precip for us
later Sat and early Sat night. Diurnal/sfc- based cumulus are
expected again, and mid & high clouds should spread across the
state from NW-SE through the day. Many places could have 100%
cloud cover in the aftn, but only 50-70% opacity. There is a
only a very tiny (5-10%) chance that a drip or two could reach
the ground over the nrn tier. The 1) recent very-dry spell we
are going through and 2) the usually-drier northern stream track
of the system make measurable rain a very low probability
outcome. Dry again Sunday with less cloud cover. Both Sat and
Sun will hold similar temps. Maxes should get well (10F) above
normals both days, reaching the upper 80s in Greencastle and mid
80s for most other cities south and east of State College.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Long term pattern remain very similar to the short term: High
pressure ridge overhead with unusually warm temps. The
possibility of a storm system developing along the East Coast is
still there, but most recent guidance has it farther south (GA-
SC) and not moving too much farther N. So, the PoPs have been
limited to just 15% in the far SE for mid-week.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected for much of Central PA into the
morning, though a period of IFR visibility is possible at LNS as
fog develops. There is a lesser chance (

NWS CTP Office Area Forecast Discussion