Summerfield, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

150
FXUS64 KLUB 231726
AFDLUB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1226 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1226 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
- Clusters of showers and thunderstorms are forecast to move
   across West Texas during the overnight hours.
- Conditions dry out Wednesday, with much cooler temperatures.
- Dry and warm conditions are forecast through the end of the
   week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 1226 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
A few changes have been made to the short-term forecast, but the
synoptic theme remains on track. In the mid/upper-levels, an intense
shortwave trough, with an embedded closed low, was digging into the
Sawatch and Mosquito Ranges. A pair of 300-200 mb jet streaks near
75 kt were phasing at the apex of the subtropical ridge, the latter
of which was centered over central Mexico, and will remain amplified
as the shortwave trough begins to eject into the Great Plains. The
intensity of the cross-barrier flow continues to generate mountain
waves, and these waves are evident on recent water-vapor imagery and
via the formation of cirrocumulus lenticularis observed yesterday,
which demarcate the intense, westerly, high-level flow. The vortex
embedded within the shortwave trough extends through 250 mb, but it
will open as the system emerges over western KS by sunset. Farther
west, a closed low offshore SoCal has since become cut-off, as it
lags behind the semi-progressive wave train over the Lower 48 and
well to the south of the jet stream. This cut-off low will meander
offshore SoCal for the next 24-36 hours, as the development of a
pseudo-Rex Block was observed on the 12Z objectively analyzed UA
charts over the Cascade and Klamath Mountains.
At the surface, the cold front has moved into the Permian Basin up
on the Caprock, and bends northeastward across the Rolling Plains to
the west of SPS. The front will temporarily become quasi-stationary
in the far southeastern Rolling Plains this afternoon, but it will
still progress to the south and east of the CWA. Storm chances have
been removed for this afternoon across the southeastern zones, as
the brisk, post-frontal winds will persist area-wide and keep any
convergence out of the CWA. Currently, there is a 25 degrees
temperature gradient across the CWA, with a temperature of 64
degrees in Dimmitt and 90 degrees in Aspermont. Highs for this
afternoon were tweaked, but will still range from near 80 degrees in
the far southwestern TX PH to the middle 90s in the southeastern
Rolling Plains.
Thunderstorm chances will increase late tonight as the shortwave
trough ejects into the central Great Plains, with its base
translating over the CWA. Several fast-moving clusters of storms are
expected to move eastward from eastern NM and across the southern
half of the CWA tonight, followed by an eventual movement towards
the southeast during the early morning hours Wednesday. These
convective elements will be elevated, which will mitigate the
potential for damaging winds, but a couple of instances of small
hail mixed with heavy rainfall will be possible as the mid-levels
cool. The severe weather threat is low tonight into early Wednesday
morning. Due to the progressiveness of this shortwave trough, any
residual showers will finally exit the CWA shortly after sunrise
Wednesday, and flash flooding is not expected despite the potential
for multiple swaths of heavy rainfall. NBM PoPs were adjusted to
reflect the best timing. Fair weather will follow, with mild
temperatures and a northerly breeze expected Wednesday.
Sincavage
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 1226 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
Benign weather is forecast Thursday into Friday, as the shortwave
trough pivots into the Mississippi River Valley and the cut-off low
previously located offshore SoCal moves inland, shifting the center
of a low-amplitude ridge over the region. A gradual warming trend
will follow, with return flow becoming established by Friday as
large-scale, leeward pressure falls are restored across the entire
Great Plains via the northern-stream troughing. Global NWP guidance
is in agreement with a block-like pattern over the Lower 48, with
the northern-stream trough translating near and over the Medicine
Line/49th parallel. The cut-off low will eventually lose its
barotropy this weekend, as geopotential height falls are induced by
the right-exit region to a shortwave trough upstream over the far
northeastern Pacific Ocean, but the low will still remain closed as
it phases with the southern-stream split in the flow. NBM PoPs may
be a bit generous for the western zones, as storm chances will be
contingent on the position of the closed low until it dissolves into
an open wave and ejects eastward into the Great Plains. Very warm
temperatures are otherwise forecast this weekend as the shortwave
ridge gradually moves over the region.
Sincavage
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1226 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
A period of showers and thunderstorms continues to look likely
tonight as an upper level disturbance moves across the southern High
Plains region. This precipitation is expected to come in a fairly
narrow band along the latitude that Lubbock sits and across points
south. Will continue to favor KLBB with a PROB30 wording for now
given some uncertainties around timing and keep KPVW and KCDS precip-
free. In general, ceilings should remain VFR with a fairly low
altocumulus deck near 7-8 kft but with some MVFR ceilings possibly
accompanying TS.
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...09
LONG TERM....09
AVIATION...07

NWS LUB Office Area Forecast Discussion