Sutton, Nebraska Weather Forecast Discussion

208
FXUS63 KGID 102230
AFDGID
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
530 PM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025
...Added Climate Section...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Temperatures continue to warm through Friday afternoon with
  highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s.
- The next best precipitation chances (40-65%) lie Saturday afternoon
  to Sunday (cold frontal passage). A few stronger to severe
  storms may be possible.
- A touch cooler temperatures Sunday (upper 70s to low 80s) with 80s
  evening out Monday through next Wednesday.
- A 30-35% shower/storm chance returns Tuesday night into
  Wednesday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 307 PM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025
Tonight through Friday...
Temperatures this afternoon are in line to peak into the low to mid
80s with steady southeasterly winds 10-15 MPH. Lows tonight are
expected to fall into the low to mid 60s with light winds. This
south to southeasterly breeze is expected to return for
Thursday as well. The forecast remains fairly dry through Friday
with only a minor 10-15% chance of an isolated storm out of our
far southeastern Nebraska and far eastern Kansas areas.
The synoptic pattern aloft features a somewhat elongated ridge
centered over the Central U.S. A progressive wave moving closer in
from the west should run into the slower eastern U.S. trough,
compressing this ridge further. Higher pressure aloft providing
subsidence (stable/sinking air) with steady southerly winds at the
surface pulling up warmer air from the south, will both help
continue the warming trend and keep our forecast dry through Friday.
Highs will be on their way into the low to mid 90s by Friday
afternoon, currently sitting as the warmest day in our 7-day
forecast. The other feature of note will be the formation of a
surface low pressure trough forming underneath of the diffluent
exit region of the approaching mid-to-upper level trough. This
feature will play a major role in the weather for the weekend in
terms of frontogenesis.
Saturday and Sunday...
The next truly decent precipitation chance (40-60%) arrive
Saturday night into Sunday. These chances have continued to
increase as forecast and model confidence improves. An upper-
level low will be on track to slip by our northwest over the
weekend. This feature will help provide wide scale assent and
destabilization across the area (mid-level cooling and PVA). At
the surface, a cold front should emerge out from the eastern
Rockies, tied to the low pressure center forming along the upper
plains. This front will sweep down from the High Plains
Saturday and Sunday, acting as a lifting mechanism for storms.
Both the GFS (American ensemble) and ECMWF (European ensemble)
indicate at least isolated/scattered storms roaming our forecast
area between Saturday evening-Sunday night, with the overall
coverage and total number of storms each day tied to the speed
of the front. Currently the ECMWF points towards a greater
coverage of storms Saturday night (quicker with the frontal
passage) and the GFS points towards a greater coverage
Sunday-Sunday night (slower with the frontal passage). In
addition, the chance for a few stronger to severe storms may be
possible as storms developing along the front could take
advantage of up 2,500 J/kg of MUCAPE in some places. Despite
lower than ideal shear (bulk shear 

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion