Swinney Switch, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

368
FXUS64 KCRP 132336
AFDCRP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
636 PM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 631 PM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025
- Increasing risk of coastal flooding during high tide at night
  through the middle of next week
- Daily low to medium (20-40%) shower and thunderstorm chances
  during the upcoming work week
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025
Currently, South Texas is sitting under an elongated mid-level ridge
axis with a greater than 1.5" PWAT moisture axis stretching over
Deep South Texas into the Rio Grande Plains. Maintained a low chance
for showers and thunderstorms over the Rio Grande Plains this
afternoon and evening with a continue lull of activity over the rest
of the region through Sunday.
Low to medium (20-40%) daily rain chances return this upcoming work
week due to moisture recovering to near normal interacting with
diurnally driven mechanisms (surface heating and seabreeze). We`re
continuing to monitor water levels with an increased risk for
minor coastal flooding due to approaching seasonal high tide and
persistent onshore flow. High tides are forecast to occur during
nighttime hours with P-ETSS ensemble guidance indicating potential
water levels at Aransas Pass peaking between 1.7-2.1 ft MSL.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 631 PM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025
VFR conditions are to be expected through most of the TAF period
across all sites. Some brief periods of MVFR will be possible once
again for patchy fog (VCT) and lower ceilings (LRD and COT) around
daybreak (09-13Z). Otherwise, winds will be gusty tomorrow around
20-25 knots.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025
Expect an east to southeasterly moderate breeze during the day and
gentle breeze during the overnight periods through the upcoming work
week. There will be a low to medium chance (20-50%) of showers and
thunderstorms next week. Seas will generally range from 3 to 5
feet.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    76  92  76  92 /   0  10  10  30
Victoria          70  95  69  95 /   0  10   0  10
Laredo            75  98  74  98 /   0  10   0  20
Alice             72  95  71  95 /   0  10  10  30
Rockport          79  91  78  91 /   0  20  20  20
Cotulla           74  97  72  96 /   0   0   0  10
Kingsville        73  93  72  92 /   0  10  10  30
Navy Corpus       81  89  80  89 /  10  20  30  30
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...EMF/94
AVIATION...NP/92

NWS CRP Office Area Forecast Discussion