Sybert, Georgia Weather Forecast Discussion

193
FXUS62 KCAE 271732
AFDCAE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
132 PM EDT Sat Sep 27 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers and storms possible again today. Rain chances
decrease for Sunday as drier air pushes in behind a surface
front. Early next week, heavy rainfall remains possible as a
tropical depression moves northward.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key message(s):
- Scattered showers/storms continue this afternoon and into the
  evening, likely waning overnight.
The weak surface front appears to finally be making some
progress across the the region toward the southeast as scattered
convection has continued to fire along it in the northern FA.
This is also evident through a decent PWAT gradient that seen
from NW to SE where values are near 1.5" in the upstate but
approach 1.9-2" closer to the Coastal Plain. The upper trough is
now moving into the Carolinas with mid level flow becoming more
southerly to south-southwesterly and a hint of a weak closed
mid-level circulation is seen near the northern GA/SC border.
For the remainder of afternoon and into the evening, scattered
shower and storm activity will likely continue, forced by the
surface front and upper trough. The main area of concern for
isolated flooding is the NW corner of the CWA where rain
overnight and into this morning brought a swath of 1-3" with
isolated spots toward 4" into McCormick County, though it is
possible this isolated risk shifts a bit more south with the
front. High-res models are in decent agreement that this
activity should generally wane overnight tonight.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Key message(s):
- Drier weather for Sunday before rain chances ramp up overnight
The axis of an upper level trough is forecast to remain to our
west on Sunday shifting eastward through the day. At the
surface, the associated boundary will be east of the forecast
area allowing drier air to work into the region. Mean PWAT
values from the HREF range from 1.2 inches west to 1.5 inches
closer to the coast. This will largely limit convective
development in central SC and the CSRA in the afternoon. Highs
will probably be slightly below normal as winds should be out of
the northeast through the day with increasing cloud cover
aiding in keeping things cooler.
Deeper moisture will be pushed back into the coastal plain
Sunday evening and overnight with scattered showers possibly
moving into our eastern counties around sunset. Convective
activity may increase overnight as moisture continues to feed
into the region. Lows will likely be in the upper 60s to around
70.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Key message(s):
- Heavy rainfall remains possible early next week
The bulk of the long term forecast remains focused on the
evolution and track of TD9 which is moving toward the northwest
near 6 mph (9 km/h). A north-northwestward motion is expected to
begin later today and continue through Monday. On the forecast
track, the center of the system is expected to move across the
central and northwestern Bahamas this weekend and approach the
southeast U.S. coast early next week.
Confidence is increasing that this system will pull deep
moisture off of the Atlantic and into the Carolinas. Due to
this, the threat of flooding rainfall remains the greatest area
of concern for central SC and the CSRA. On the current track,
shower or thunderstorms may begin to move into the area as early
as Monday, but the heaviest rain is most likely Monday night
and Tuesday. This flooding rain threat may continue through mid-
week depending on the eventual track of the system. Confidence
is lower in any impacts from strong winds which will be more
highly dependent on the track. The potential influence from
Humberto may pull the system eastward and limit the wind threat
for central SC and the CSRA.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Periods of showers expected this afternoon and into the evening
before more IFR restrictions are possible overnight and into
Sunday morning.
Ceilings have slowly risen into this afternoon with most of the
TAF sites seeing periods of VFR ceilings. Generally VFR
ceilings are expected the remainder of this afternoon and into
the evening, but a couple pockets of MVFR ceilings seem possible
over the next couple hours. A weak surface front is working
into the area and this may bring periods of showers or an
isolated storm mainly toward the Columbia and Augusta terminals.
Winds should remain very light (3-5 kts) through this afternoon
and into this evening and could be a bit squirrely at times.
Rain showers are expected to diminish this evening and overnight
tonight, but another round of stratus and fog seems likely with
pooling low level moisture in the area. The highest confidence
in restrictions is AGS/OGB, but all of the TAF sites have a good
chance of restrictions after 08-10z and through the morning
before gradually improving at the end of the TAF period.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Rain chances are bit lower Sunday
but deep moisture remains in place into early week with more
widespread rain chances possible. Restrictions each morning will
be possible.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.
&&
$$

NWS CAE Office Area Forecast Discussion