Tahlequah, Oklahoma Weather Forecast Discussion

462
FXUS64 KTSA 061721
AFDTSA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1221 PM CDT Sat Sep 6 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Sat Sep 6 2025
- Decreasing cloudiness from north to south today, with
temperatures well below normal. A stray shower cannot be ruled out
across far SE OK this afternoon.
- Dry conditions are favored through next week, with only a slight
chance of rain in parts of NE OK Monday night/ Tuesday.
- Temperatures warm back to near or slightly above average by mid
to late week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight )
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Sat Sep 6 2025
Earlier shower activity has exited to the south and east of the area
as sfc high pressure continues to expand into the region today.
Expect predominantly dry conditions through the remainder of today
and tonight, though a stray shower cannot be ruled out across far SE
OK this afternoon. Skies clear from north to south today, with
clouds lingering in SE OK the longest. Highs this afternoon likely
remain in the 70s.
Going into tonight, mostly clear to partly cloudy skies are forecast
areawide with temps cooling well into the 50s across NE OK and NW
AR/ lower 60s near the Red River. A few of the typically cooler
locations in NE OK and NW AR may even fall into the upper 40s for a
couple hours tonight... well below normal for early September. Some
patchy fog is possible tonight, mainly across parts of SE OK and NW
AR, but low coverage & probability precluded inclusion in the
forecast at this time.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Saturday)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Sat Sep 6 2025
Overall, mostly quiet weather is expected over the next several
days. Temperatures begin to warm tomorrow through Tuesday with
southerly flow returning to the area. This provides highs in the
lower-mid 80s areawide. Upper level ridging moves overhead Wednesday
through the remainder of the week with highs climbing back to near
or slightly above average (upper 80s/ lower 90s). A subtle shortwave
may allow some rain/ thunder to creep into far western portions of
the FA Monday night/ Tuesday (10-20% chance). However, the higher
precip chances are currently expected to remain north and west of
the area through the extended period with mainly dry conditions
across E OK & NW AR.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Sat Sep 6 2025
VFR conditions are expected to prevail with light winds and
clearing skies area wide. Patchy light fog could develop in
favored valley areas overnight but confidence remains low for any
specific terminal impacts.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   55  82  57  82 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   58  85  59  84 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   59  82  55  83 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   49  81  51  82 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   48  82  51  82 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   51  81  51  82 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   56  82  56  82 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   51  81  53  82 /   0   0   0   0
F10   56  80  54  82 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   62  80  58  81 /  10   0   0   0
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...43
LONG TERM....43
AVIATION...07

NWS TSA Office Area Forecast Discussion