Tamarac, Florida Weather Forecast Discussion

520
FXUS62 KMFL 221147
AFDMFL
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
747 AM EDT Mon Sep 22 2025
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 129 AM EDT Mon Sep 22 2025
Deep layer moisture is slowly returning to South Florida as PWATs
rise above 2 inches again per the 00Z MFL sounding. As high pressure
pushes off the US east coast, surface flow will become more easterly
today and tomorrow. With the return of deeper moisture, increased
cloud cover will once again plague South Florida much of the
early week period. Coastal showers and storms may once again begin
early this morning, developing into more robust thunderstorm
complexes during the early afternoon and evening. With prevailing
easterly flow, highest rain chances are expected to migrate
westward through the day with best chances across east coast areas
during the early afternoon hours and early evening for portions
of Southwest Florida.
Deep moisture hangs around heading into Tuesday, and cloud cover is
expected to linger through most of the day. A few peeks of sun will
be possible during the morning hours, along with additional morning
coastal showers. Once again, thunderstorms will develop and migrate
inland through the day.
Localized flooding will be the primary concern through the period,
with the possibility that some areas may see repeated rounds of
heavy rainfall over short periods of time. Rounds of heavy rainall
coupled with poor drainage, construction zones, and blocked sewer
drains, could lead to roadway flooding and drivers should heed
caution.
High temperatures will be on the cooler side due to increased cloud
cover with highs topping out in the upper 80s each day. Lows will
drop into the mid to upper 70s. &&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 129 AM EDT Mon Sep 22 2025
High pressure will maintain an onshore east-northeast flow during
the mid-week period. On Thursday and Friday, a very subtle boundary
draped across Central Florida could progress southward which
would kick the plume of deep layer moisture over the Southern
peninsula towards the South. On Thursday and Friday, modeled PWATs
drop into the 1.7-1.8 inch range which will subsequently drop
rain chances for the end of the week into the weekend into the
40-50% range. Despite slightly lower moisture, scattered showers
and storms will be expected each afternoon and evening with the
possibility of coastal showers across eastern areas during the
morning hours. With lower moisture, each day during the late week
period and upcoming weekend will begin with much more sun, and
cloud cover will increase into the afternoon hours and showers and
storms begin to develop. The obvious exception will be for
portions of the east coast that do end up receiving an isolated
morning shower.
High temperatures through the period will reach the lower 90s with
overnight lows in the 70s.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 129 AM EDT Mon Sep 22 2025
High pressure will maintain an onshore east-northeast flow during
the mid-week period. On Thursday and Friday, a very subtle boundary
draped across Central Florida could progress southward which
would kick the plume of deep layer moisture over the Southern
peninsula towards the South. On Thursday and Friday, modeled PWATs
drop into the 1.7-1.8 inch range which will subsequently drop
rain chances for the end of the week into the weekend into the
40-50% range. Despite slightly lower moisture, scattered showers
and storms will be expected each afternoon and evening with the
possibility of coastal showers across eastern areas during the
morning hours. With lower moisture, each day during the late week
period and upcoming weekend will begin with much more sun, and
cloud cover will increase into the afternoon hours and showers and
storms begin to develop. The obvious exception will be for
portions of the east coast that do end up receiving an isolated
morning shower.
High temperatures through the period will reach the lower 90s with
overnight lows in the 70s.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 746 AM EDT Mon Sep 22 2025
Generally VFR with a lull in convection this morning. Shower and
thunderstorm activity will trend up late morning into the
afternoon hours which could bring bouts of sub-VFR to the
terminals. Light easterly flow will prevail through much of the
period though some directional variability if possible overnight
and around any convection.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 129 AM EDT Mon Sep 22 2025
A moderate east-northeasterly breeze will continue today. Seas
across the Atlantic waters will generally remain between 2 to 3 feet
while seas across the Gulf waters remain at 1 to 2 feet. Showers and
storms are likely throughout the day across local waters, especially
over the Atlantic side. Periods of rough seas and gusty winds will
be possible near the most robust shower and thunderstorm activity.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            90  78  90  78 /  70  40  60  20
West Kendall     90  76  90  77 /  70  30  60  20
Opa-Locka        90  78  91  78 /  70  40  60  20
Homestead        89  77  90  77 /  70  40  60  20
Fort Lauderdale  89  78  90  78 /  70  40  60  20
N Ft Lauderdale  89  79  90  79 /  70  40  60  20
Pembroke Pines   92  78  92  78 /  70  40  60  20
West Palm Beach  89  76  89  78 /  70  30  50  20
Boca Raton       90  77  91  78 /  70  40  60  20
Naples           91  76  91  77 /  60  40  60  20
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Rizzuto
LONG TERM....Rizzuto
AVIATION...RAG

NWS MFL Office Area Forecast Discussion