Tarzan, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

953
FXUS64 KMAF 261829
AFDMAF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
129 PM CDT Fri Sep 26 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 122 PM CDT Fri Sep 26 2025
- Increasing potential for showers and thunderstorms this weekend,
  especially for locations west of the Pecos River (40-70%
  chances).
- Locally heavy rainfall this weekend could lead to instances of
  flash flooding.
- A warmer and drier pattern sets up next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Saturday night)
Issued at 122 PM CDT Fri Sep 26 2025
Current satellite imagery depicts an upper-level low sitting over
Southern California, near the Arizona border. This low, along with a
favorable plume of enhanced moisture and upslope flow, will yield
increasing rain chances in our far western counties beginning today
and continuing through the weekend. Locations from roughly the Presidio
Valley up to the Davis Mountains and into Eddy County have a
10-30% chance of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and
evening. The highest chances will tend to be on the far western
fringes of our coverage area due to their relative proximity to
the upper-level cutoff low. Meanwhile, between this low and the
trough to our east, ridging has set up over West Texas and
Southeast New Mexico. As a result, temperatures climb a couple of
degrees above those of yesterday. For most locations (aside from
the normal cool spots in the higher terrain), highs top out in the
upper 80s and low 90s, while lows tonight generally bottom out in
the 60s and upper 50s.
Shower and thunderstorm activity continues for the western half of
our area tomorrow afternoon into tomorrow night as well. The best
chances (40-70%) will be in roughly the same locations as today,
with lower chances (20-40%) from Lea County south towards Reeves
County and into the Big Bend. Unfortunately, it still looks like
much of the Permian Basin of West Texas and the Lower Trans-Pecos
will miss out on beneficial rainfall. Severe weather is not
anticipated, though localized heavy rainfall could lead to instances
of flash flooding. Temperatures will be similar to today`s, albeit a
couple of degrees cooler out west due to the increased cloud cover
and rain chances there.
Sprang
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 122 PM CDT Fri Sep 26 2025
Moderate-to-high (40-70%) shower and thunderstorm chances continue
from Saturday night into Sunday afternoon across western portions of
our area. By Sunday morning, the cutoff low will rejoin the main
upper-level flow and begin to eject to the northeast. As a result,
by Sunday evening rain chances begin to diminish, and by Monday
lingering shower and thunderstorm activity will be mainly confined
to the higher terrain (10-30%). After this weekend, the forecast
becomes much less eventful. Thick cloud cover will help keep
temperatures at or below seasonal norms Monday. After that, we enter
a warming and drying pattern that lasts through the end of the
period as ridging yet again sets up over the region. By the first of
October (Wednesday), highs 7-10 degrees above average are
anticipated (for reference, KMAF`s normal high is 84 on October
1st). Rain chances are also pretty much nil after Monday, as the
best moisture looks to be displaced east of our area and subsidence
limits upward motion.
Sprang
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1231 PM CDT Fri Sep 26 2025
VFR conditions and light winds will continue this TAF period.
ISOLD SHRA/TS should remain west of all terminals.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               61  89  62  87 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 64  87  63  81 /  20  40  50  60
Dryden                   66  92  66  89 /   0  10  10  10
Fort Stockton            67  90  65  86 /  10  20  20  30
Guadalupe Pass           61  76  59  71 /  30  50  60  70
Hobbs                    62  86  61  82 /  10  30  30  30
Marfa                    58  81  57  75 /  20  50  40  60
Midland Intl Airport     64  89  64  87 /   0  10  10  10
Odessa                   65  88  64  86 /   0  10  10  10
Wink                     65  88  64  85 /  10  20  20  30
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION...10

NWS MAF Office Area Forecast Discussion