Terrell, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

829
FXUS64 KFWD 061721
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1221 PM CDT Sat Sep 6 2025
...New Short Term, Long Term, Aviation...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Scattered showers with a few storms will gradually decrease in
  coverage this afternoon. Isolated to scattered showers and
  storms will be possible in Central Texas again on Sunday.
- Cooler weather will continue through Monday behind a cold front.
- Hotter and drier weather will return mid to late next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/This Weekend/
Scattered showers and a occasional embedded storms continue
across the region as of midday. Most of the activity is now
confined to Central Texas, with ongoing showers and storms
expected to gradually taper off over the next several hours.
Otherwise, cooler weather will prevail, thanks to a cold front,
cloudy skies, and morning rain. Afternoon highs will only reach
into the mid to upper 70s in North Texas and mid 70s to mid 80s in
Central Texas.
Another cool night is on tap for the region, with low temperatures
falling into the 60s areawide. Low stratus is expected to develop
late tonight and will result in mostly cloudy skies for some
locations Sunday morning. However, morning cloud cover should
gradually scatter out throughout the day, with mostly sunny skies
expected by mid to late afternoon. Low storm chances will linger
across Central Texas throughout the day as the shortwave
responsible for today`s showers and storms shifts further south.
However, coverage will remain rather limited - only around
20-30%. Below normal temperatures will stick around another day
with afternoon highs in the low to mid 80s.
Barnes
&&
.LONG TERM... /NEW/
/Sunday Night Through Late Next Week/
A gradual warming trend is expected through the long term period.
No rain chances are currently forecast, as upper level ridging
will slowly build into the region by mid to late week. Prior to
this, we`ll need to monitor the potential for a few showers
and/or storms to make a run at North Texas Monday night and
Tuesday night, as we`ll still be placed beneath north/northwest
flow aloft. However, the potential for this to occur is low at
this time, so we`ll stick closely to the NBM which advertises no
rain chances from Monday onward. Temperatures will trend slightly
above normal by Wednesday or Thursday, coinciding with the
strengthening of the upper level ridge. However, cooler mornings
in the 60s will likely continue throughout the week as Gulf
moisture remains shunted to our south.
Barnes
&&
.AVIATION... /NEW/
/18Z TAFs/
MVFR ceilings across North Texas are currently confined to
southern portions of D10 airspace and will continue to erode over
the next couple of hours or so. All Metroplex TAFs are now VFR
through the afternoon, though a very intermittent drop to MVFR is
possible at KGKY until ceilings erode completely. Across Central
Texas/KACT, MVFR ceilings will linger through much of the
afternoon, with improvement expected around 21-22Z or so. Showers
and thunderstorms have come to an end across North Texas but will
continue across Central Texas through much of the afternoon.
However, this activity should gradually taper off by this evening
and is expected to remain outside of the vicinity of the KACT
terminal.
MVFR ceilings are expected to develop again early Sunday morning.
Intermittent IFR ceilings may be possible as well, but there is
high uncertainty if/when this will occur. Therefore, it was
omitted from the TAF for now. North winds will prevail through the
afternoon AOB 10 knots. Winds will become northeasterly around 5
knots or less overnight, with 5-10 knot east to northeast winds
expected on Sunday.
Barnes
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    77  67  82  65  85 /  40  10  10   5   5
Waco                80  68  82  66  86 /  40  10  20  10  10
Paris               74  62  81  59  82 /  30  10   5   0   0
Denton              78  64  83  61  85 /  30  10  10   5   5
McKinney            77  64  83  61  84 /  40  10   5   5   5
Dallas              79  67  83  66  86 /  40  10  10   5   5
Terrell             77  65  82  62  84 /  50  10  10   5   5
Corsicana           81  68  83  65  86 /  50  10  10   5   5
Temple              84  67  83  66  86 /  30  20  40  20  10
Mineral Wells       78  64  82  63  86 /  20  10  10  10  10
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$

NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion