Terry, West Virginia Weather Forecast Discussion

267
FXUS61 KRLX 201718
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
118 PM EDT Sat Sep 20 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Warm weather prevails for the weekend, but some areas see chances
of precipitation. Chances of rain and storms become more
widespread for the next work week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 114 PM Saturday...
Frontal boundary stalled across northern zones will slowly move
north during the near term period, with a light southeasterly flow
developing across the area, resulting in an uptick in moisture. This
combined with afternoon heating, will result in a chance for showers
and storms today, particularly across the mountainous counties, with
the bulk of the activity dissipating late this evening with loss of
heating.
On Sunday, an uptick in the humidity will be noted with frontal
boundary to our north, and an increase in southerly flow across the
area. Dew points should rise to the lower to possibly mid 60s in
spots. A shortwave crossing the area will help to generate more
showers and storms, with best chances looking to be across SE Ohio
and NE KY zones. Increasing deep layer shear and instability, will
lead to the potential for storms to become organized, with a
damaging wind and possible hail threat. SPC has added a marginal
risk, mainly just to the west of the area, but it does clip our SE
Ohio and NE KY zones.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 114 PM Saturday...
Monday and Tuesday will continue to be active across the area as low
pressure skirts across the Great Lakes/Canada, and multiple
shortwaves continue to traverse the area. At this point, severe
storms are not anticipated but storms will contain brief heavy
downpours to the area.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 114 PM Saturday...
Active weather continues Wednesday onward as a
developing/strengthening low pressure system takes hold across the
central U.S. and gradually makes its way eastward towards the area.
This will result in not only showery/stormy conditions, but cooler
conditions across the area as it carves out a trough across the
region.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 115 PM Saturday...
Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms through 02Z,
mainly across the mountains and north central WV, although a
stray storm cannot be ruled out elsewhere. Expect brief MVFR/IFR
conditions in vicinity of storms.
After 02Z, mainly VFR conditions with light winds, although
areas of IFR/LIFR ceilings/vsbys are possible across the
northern mountains, including at site KEKN, generally after 08Z.
Conditions should gradually improve to VFR area wide after 13Z
Sunday.
Showers and storms will increase in coverage again on Sunday,
mainly after 18Z.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of storms this afternoon and evening
may vary from forecast. Lower ceilings may not develop across
the northern mountains overnight.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY       17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04
EDT 1HRLY       13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...
No widespread IFR conditions expected.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Compared to historical records and the 1991-2020 U.S. Climate
Normals, it was a very warm summer across the NWS Charleston
forecast area. The summer season encapsulates the period of June
1st through August 31st. Mean temperatures for the 2025 summer
season were generally 1 to 3 degrees above normal. This translated
into four official NWS Charleston climate locations making the
top 10 in terms of their warmest mean summer temperatures on record.
As is typical during the summer season, precipitation totals
varied rather significantly across the forecast area depending
on location, ranging from as low as 7 to 9 inches in portions of
southern Ohio and northeast Kentucky, to as high as 16 to nearly
20 inches across some locations in the lowlands of West Virginia
and northeast mountains. This resulted in a wide range of
precipitation departures depending on location, with some areas
ending up well below normal in terms of total precipitation,
while others well above normal, with the overall spread of
departures ranging from approximately +/- 5 inches. Even with
this wide range of precipitation totals across the forecast area,
no top 10s were set at any of the official NWS Charleston climate
locations in terms of wettest or driest summer on record.
Summer 2025 Top Tens Set (Mean Temperature)
-------------------------------------------------------------------
  Location             Top 10 Rank                Observed Value
- Elkins, WV         : 2nd Warmest             -> 72.1 F
- Huntington, WV     : 4th Warmest             -> 77.9 F
- Clarksburg, WV     : Tied 4th Warmest        -> 74.5 F
- Beckley, WV        : 6th Warmest             -> 71.9 F
-------------------------------------------------------------------
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SL
NEAR TERM...SL
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...SL
CLIMATE...GW

NWS RLX Office Area Forecast Discussion