Thalman, Georgia Weather Forecast Discussion

849
FXUS62 KJAX 111211
AFDJAX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
811 AM EDT Thu Sep 11 2025
...New UPDATE, AVIATION...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 745 AM EDT Thu Sep 11 2025
For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf
Drier, a little warmer and less breezy today compared to yesterday
as the pressure gradient between high pressure north of the region
and a trough stalled across south FL weakens. A low (< 20%) chance
of coastal showers moving onshore this afternoon will continue
for Flagler, Putnam and Marion counties, otherwise dry weather
prevails. With lower dew pts mixing down into the afternoon, peak
heat index values will only top out near 90 for most locations as
high temperatures warm into the 80s.
No major changes to the ongoing forecast for the morning update.
&&
.NEAR TERM...Today and Tonight...
Surface ridge of high pressure to the north will weaken today
allowing gradients to loosen some resulting in lighter
northeasterly breezes. Southwesterly flow ahead of the axis of a
pivoting upper trough will push dry mid level air into our skies
and limit the extent of shower chances to the far southern zones
(Marion, Putnam, and Flagler counties) this afternoon. With
observed mid-level heights around the 25th percentile,
temperatures again will be a few degrees below or right around
normal today.
Tonight, there may be enough moisture available to initiate a few
showers offshore which would be advected inland toward the
Flagler County coast; however, most of the coastal shower activity
will be to the south. Dewpoints hovering in the 60s and lighter
winds will allow temperatures to dip into the low to mid 60s
inland and in the low 70s at the coast.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Friday through Saturday night)
Friday, the mid to upper level flow pattern will feature strong
ridging across the heartland of the US into TX and the Rio Grand
valley while an elongated trough extending from the Mid Atlantic
into the FL panhandle deepens as potent shortwave energy dives
around the eastern periphery of the aforementioned ridge out west.
At the surface, the surface frontal boundary to the south will
begin to lift back northward with increasing low level moisture
and lift aloft increasing coastal shower activity through the day
scattered showers pushing onshore the NE FL coast with isolated
T`storms development during afternoon peak heating as Atlantic
seabreeze works inland to the St Johns river and beyond against
the NNE flow, turning winds northeasterly behind it. Cloud cover
will be limited to the coast and St Johns river basin with sunny
skies well inland due to below normal moisture levels from dry.
Friday`s highs will be cooler, a bit below normal along the coast
with the NNE to NE onshore flow and partly cloudy skies from
coastal clouds and showers and warm to the upper 80s inland
to near 90 over far western zones from sunnier skies. Winds will
be in the 10-15 mph range inland and 15-20 gusting to 30 mph at
the coast.
Friday night, coastal showers will persist over the waters with
isolated to scattered showers managing to move onshore to coastal
areas. Northeast winds will stay elevated at the coast 10-15 mph
with gusts to 25 mph overnight. Lows will range from the mid 60s
over far inland SE GA/Suwannee river valley to the low 70s along
the coast.
Saturday, base of the elongated trough will become closed along
the SE US coast as ridging out west shifts along the MS river
valley. The upper low will provide lift and enhance coastal showers
moving onto the coast and the southern St Johns river basin and
north central FL. However, low level ridging will build into the
southern Appalachians and bring in drier air over NW portions of
SE GA as dewpoints fall into the mid/upper 50s in sharp contrast
to dewpoints near 70 along the NE FL coast. Surface local pressure
gradient will tighten as high pressure builds in from the NW while
coastal troughing increases under the closed upper low with breezy
winds 15-25 mph at the coast gusting at time to 30-35 mph. Highs
will be in the low 80s at the coast and warm inland to the mid to
upper 80s.
Saturday night, coastal showers offshore will persist and continue
to drift onshore at times overnight mainly along the NE FL coast
and the southern St Johns river basin. A gradient of low temps
will range from low 60s over inland SE GA/Suwannee river valley
to the low 70s at the coast with. Northeast winds will continue
breezy coastal winds 15-20 mph overnight to 10-15 mph away from
the coast.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Sunday a low will develop east of the SE US coast and lift NE into
the western Atlantic waters off the Carolina Outer Banks as high
pressure remains over the TN Valley and southern Appalachians. The
flow will be from the northeast with the pressure gradient easing
into early next week. There is some uncertainty in the long term
models on whether the low will remain stationary near the Outer
Banks or continues to trek away into the northern western Atlantic
waters, but locally scattered coastal showers will remain with
isolated to scattered showers pushing onshore to the NE FL coast
during the day while remaining dry inland. Another cold front will
approach from the north towards the end of the week which may
increase onshore winds and shower chances.
Temperatures will remain a little below normal during the period
with highs ranging from the mid 80s at the coast and I-95 corridor
to the upper 80s to near 90 inland. Lows will begin the period
below normal in the low to mid 60s for most inland areas to
lows 70s along the NE FL coast and warm closer to normal by
the end of the period with upper 60s inland and low 70s at the
coast.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 745 AM EDT Thu Sep 11 2025
Brief MVFR conditions this morning at CRG and SGJ with
stratocumulus skirting the coast, and included TEMPO MVFR through
14z for both terminals. Otherwise, VFR conditions and dry
conditions under SCT-BKN high cirrus clouds and diurnally driven
cumulus this afternoon with bases 2.5-3.5 ft agl. Breezy NNE winds
to ENE into the afternoon with speeds 8-12 kts with coastal gusts
near 20 kts, a lower than previous days. Tonight, MVFR ceilings
could impact SGJ as NNE onshore flow continues, and strengthens
through 12z Friday.
&&
.MARINE...
Prolonged northeasterly winds continue with high pressure remaining
to the north and strengthening this weekend. Today, Small Crafts
should continue to Exercise Caution over the open waters due to
breezy northeasterly winds and elevated seas. Strong northeasterly
winds will develop as high pressure to the north strengthens this
weekend, leading to a potential period of Small Craft Advisory
conditions. For next week, winds will turn more onshore and decrease
in speed as a weaker pressure pattern develops locally.
Rip Currents: Due to breezy northeast winds and 4-5 ft breakers
will continue a high risk of rip currents a NE FL beaches today
while high-end moderate risk for the SE GA beaches. High risk of
rip current for all beaches is likely Friday and through the
upcoming weekend as winds strengthen and surf builds.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Though winds will slacken today before rebuilding Friday and into
the weekend, trap tides and persistent northerly flow will lead
to elevated tidal levels within the St Johns River and within the
intracoastal waterways from Mayport south to Flagler Beach. The
beachfront areas will see lower tidal levels compared to the last
few days both today and tomorrow.
Based on wind and tidal trends, portions of the Coastal Flood
Advisory along the SE GA coast have been removed while the zones
lining the St Johns River and the intracoastal zones have been
continued through this evening. Tidal levels along the ocean will
remain elevated but aren`t expected to reach Minor Flood levels
(around 2.0 ft MHHW) over the next 24hrs. Within the St Johns
River levels between 1.5-2.0 feet are expected, especially south
of Jacksonville.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  87  62  88  63 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  83  71  83  72 /   0   0  20  20
JAX  86  69  87  70 /   0   0  30  20
SGJ  86  73  85  73 /  10  10  40  40
GNV  89  67  90  68 /  10   0  10   0
OCF  88  69  88  70 /  10  10  10   0
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ124-125-138-
     233-333.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for FLZ125-
     132-137-138-225-233-325-333-633.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&
$$

NWS JAX Office Area Forecast Discussion