Timpson, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

062
FXUS64 KSHV 100528
AFDSHV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1228 AM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1043 PM CDT Tue Sep 9 2025
- Despite the somewhat milder afternoons and cooler mornings
   lately, Summer returns with middle to upper 90s likely by later
   this week.
- Along with the hotter temperatures will be no mention of
   precipitation through the upcoming weekend into at least the
   middle part of next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1043 PM CDT Tue Sep 9 2025
Our region of the country remains under the influence of a subtle
longwave trough across the Great Lakes into the Ohio and Lower
Miss Valleys with upstream ridging noted across the Great Plains.
Normally a flow like this might exhibit at least some nocturnal
convection associated with it but our region has been under the
influence of a very dry atmosphere, both at the surface and aloft
with PWATs below 1 inch across much of our region. This has
allowed for cooler mornings and moderating temperatures during
the afternoon to go along with low afternoon humidity, making
afternoon temperatures somewhat tolerable for early September.
That will begin to change as we move into the later half of the
work week and into the upcoming weekend.
The downstream longwave trough will lift out somewhat across the
Appalachians by Thu into Fri and the upstream upper ridging
mentioned above slowly migrating eastward, setting up shop across
much of Oklahoma and Texas. This will result in subsidence aloft
which of course will result in hotter temperatures. Higher sfc
dewpoints noted across the Lower Miss Valley will continue
retrograding westward on the heels of retuning southeasterly winds
and that should result in higher afternoon humidity which may
result in the return to triple digit heat indices across some
areas by Thursday and becoming more prevalent areawide by Friday.
Looking into the early and even the middle part of next week, the
upper ridge remains very stagnated, anchored somewhere across the
Middle Red River Valley. This will likely result in a continuation
of above normal temperatures and virtually no chances for
rainfall. This pattern may (with the key word being "may") begin
breaking down just beyond this 7-day forecast cycle as the medium
range is hinting at a little more in the way of impacts from the
westerlies. Time will tell. Until then, enjoy a return to the
Summer heat.
13
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1159 PM CDT Tue Sep 9 2025
For the ArkLaTex terminals, cooler high pressure continues to slip
away to our east with a dry easterly wind keeping a late summer
status quo of VFR on autopilot. Expect fair skies and light E/SE
winds through this coming weekend with brief stint of BR around
sunrise for our valley sites. Aloft our shallow E/SE winds back
to NW flow by FL100. /24/
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1043 PM CDT Tue Sep 9 2025
Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.
13
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  88  64  93  70 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  89  67  92  67 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  84  57  89  63 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  88  61  93  67 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  87  61  92  64 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  85  62  90  68 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  86  61  92  67 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  88  61  93  68 /   0   0   0   0
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...13
AVIATION...24

NWS SHV Office Area Forecast Discussion